When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2025 · Week 9 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 14% of games.
All 14 games
2025 · Week 9 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 9 |
DAL -3.5 | 53.5 | 3243744 | U | ARI Q1 | 27–17 |
2025 · Week 9 |
SEA -2.5 | 47.5 | 7384552 | Q4 | SEA Q1 | 38–14 |
2025 · Week 9 |
KC -2.5 | 53.5 | 7344149 | U | BUF Q1 | 21–28 |
2025 · Week 9 |
JAX -1.5 | 44.5 | 09154659 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–29 |
2025 · Week 9 |
LAR -14.5 | 45.5 | 7303744 | U | LAR Q3 | 10–34 |
2025 · Week 9 |
CHI -2.5 | 51.5 | 17375889 | Q3 | CHI Q3 | 47–42 |
2025 · Week 9 |
DET -9.5 | 47.5 | 21314151 | Q4 | MIN Q1 Late over |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 9 |
GB -13.5 | 43.5 | 0131929 | U | CAR Q1 | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 9 |
LAC -9.5 | 44.5 | 21373747 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
27–20 |
2025 · Week 9 |
NE -5.5 | 45.5 | 14353847 | Q4 | ATL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–24 |
2025 · Week 9 |
SF -2.5 | 47.5 | 14243058 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
34–24 |
2025 · Week 9 |
IND -3.5 | 51.5 | 7242447 | U | PIT Q2 | 20–27 |
2025 · Week 9 |
HOU -2.5 | 41.5 | 3192233 | U | DEN Q4 | 18–15 |
2025 · Week 9 |
BAL -7.5 | 51.5 | 10203434 | U | BAL Q2 | 28–6 |
ARI
DAL
SEA
WSH
KC
BUF
JAX
LV
NO
LAR
CHI
CIN
MIN
DET
CAR
GB
LAC
TEN
ATL
NE
SF
NYG
IND
PIT
DEN
HOU
BAL
MIAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 7
Q2 21% 3
Q3 14% 2
Q4 14% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.