When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2025 · Week 6 · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 13% of games.
All 15 games
2025 · Week 6 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 6 |
WSH -5.5 | 48.5 | 6203349 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2025 · Week 6 |
BUF -3.5 | 49.5 | 21283538 | U | ATL Q1 | 14–24 |
2025 · Week 6 |
KC -2.5 | 51.5 | 9233047 | U | KC Q1 | 17–30 |
2025 · Week 6 |
GB -13.5 | 44.5 | 0101745 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
18–27 |
2025 · Week 6 |
TB -3.5 | 46.5 | 10364649 | Q4 | TB Q1 Late over |
19–30 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LV -4.5 | 41.5 | 3102030 | U | LV Q2 | 10–20 |
2025 · Week 6 |
IND -8.5 | 46.5 | 14244158 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LAC -3.5 | 45.5 | 13223656 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip |
29–27 |
2025 · Week 6 |
NE -3.5 | 46.5 | 20384144 | U | NE Q1 | 25–19 |
2025 · Week 6 |
PIT -6.5 | 37.5 | 3122232 | U | PIT Q3 | 9–23 |
2025 · Week 6 |
DAL -2.5 | 45.5 | 6304457 | Q4 | CAR Q4 | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 6 |
SEA -1.5 | 47.5 | 6192632 | U | SEA Q2 | 20–12 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LAR -6.5 | 44.5 | 362020 | U | LAR Q3 | 17–3 |
2025 · Week 6 |
DEN -6.5 | 43.5 | 16162124 | U | NYJ Q1 | 13–11 |
2025 · Week 6 |
PHI -7.5 | 41.5 | 23374451 | Q3 | NYG Q1 | 17–34 |
CHI
WSH
BUF
ATL
DET
KC
CIN
GB
SF
TB
TEN
LV
ARI
IND
LAC
MIA
NE
NO
CLE
PIT
DAL
CAR
SEA
JAX
LAR
BAL
DEN
NYJ
PHI
NYGWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 60% 9
Q2 13% 2
Q3 13% 2
Q4 13% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 73% and covered 73% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.