When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2025 · Week 5 · pick one to list those games
64% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 14 games
2025 · Week 5 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 5 |
KC -3.5 | 45.5 | 7213559 | Q4 | JAX Q3 Late over |
28–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 392343 | U | NE Q1 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 5 |
DET -9.5 | 48.5 | 7173161 | Q4 | DET Q2 | 37–24 |
2025 · Week 5 |
LAC -3.5 | 48.5 | 10203037 | U | WSH Q2 | 27–10 |
2025 · Week 5 |
ARI -7.5 | 41.5 | 17272743 | Q4 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
22–21 |
2025 · Week 5 |
SEA -3.5 | 45.5 | 3204973 | Q3 | TB Q1 | 38–35 |
2025 · Week 5 |
IND -7.5 | 46.5 | 3234346 | U | IND Q2 | 6–40 |
2025 · Week 5 |
NO -2.5 | 42.5 | 10303340 | U | NO Q3 | 14–26 |
2025 · Week 5 |
NYJ -2.5 | 47.5 | 6263659 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
37–22 |
2025 · Week 5 |
PHI -4.5 | 44.5 | 6132038 | U | DEN Q4 | 21–17 |
2025 · Week 5 |
MIA -1.5 | 44.5 | 3273051 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late over |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 5 |
HOU -2.5 | 41.5 | 10274454 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 44–10 |
2025 · Week 5 |
MIN -3.5 | 35.5 | 14173138 | Q4 | MIN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–17 |
2025 · Week 5 |
LAR -8.5 | 43.5 | 724344649 | Q4 | SF Q1 Late over |
26–23 |
KC
JAX
NE
BUF
DET
CIN
WSH
LAC
TEN
ARI
TB
SEA
LV
IND
NYG
NO
DAL
NYJ
DEN
PHI
MIA
CAR
HOU
BAL
MIN
CLE
SF
LARWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 5
Q2 21% 3
Q3 14% 2
Q4 29% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 62% and covered 62% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 71% and covered 71% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.