When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 16 · pick one to list those games
63% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 16 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 16 |
SF -4.5 | 46.5 | 21415475 | Q3 | SF Q1 | 48–27 |
2025 · Week 16 |
BAL -3.5 | 47.5 | 7203052 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
28–24 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DET -7.5 | 52.5 | 3202253 | Q4 | PIT Q1 Late over |
29–24 |
2025 · Week 16 |
HOU -14.5 | 39.5 | 7203044 | Q4 | LV Q1 | 21–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DEN -3.5 | 46.5 | 7274854 | Q3 | JAX Q1 | 34–20 |
2025 · Week 16 |
ATL -2.5 | 48.5 | 13323545 | U | ATL Q3 | 26–19 |
2025 · Week 16 |
BUF -10.5 | 41.5 | 14304043 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DAL -1.5 | 50.5 | 14384151 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
34–17 |
2025 · Week 16 |
KC -3.5 | 37.5 | 0152535 | U | TEN Q1 | 9–26 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CIN -3.5 | 48.5 | 14315266 | Q3 | CIN Q3 | 45–21 |
2025 · Week 16 |
NO -7 | 39.5 | 6152235 | U | NO Q3 | 6–29 |
2025 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 41.5 | 3232329 | U | MIN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 16 |
TB -3 | 44.5 | 10233743 | U | CAR Q2 | 20–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CHI -1.5 | 44.5 | 06163238 | U | CHI OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–22 |
2025 · Week 16 |
PHI -7 | 43.5 | 10172447 | Q4 | PHI Q4 Late over |
29–18 |
2025 · Week 16 |
SEA -1.5 | 42.5 | 1020376075 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 37–38 |
SF
IND
NE
BAL
PIT
DET
LV
HOU
JAX
DEN
ATL
ARI
BUF
CLE
LAC
DAL
KC
TEN
CIN
MIA
NYJ
NO
MIN
NYG
TB
CAR
GB
CHI
PHI
WSH
LAR
SEAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 13% 2
Q3 19% 3
Q4 13% 2
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 69% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.