When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2025 · Week 14 · pick one to list those games
79% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 9% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 7% of games.
All 14 games
2025 · Week 14 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 14 |
PHI -1.5 | 41.5 | 1016223841 | U | LAC Q1 | 19–22 |
2025 · Week 14 |
KC -4.5 | 41.5 | 3102030 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–10 |
2025 · Week 14 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 0173549 | Q4 | GB Q2 Late cover flip Late over |
21–28 |
2025 · Week 14 |
LAR -9.5 | 49.5 | 17344862 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 45–17 |
2025 · Week 14 |
DEN -8.5 | 40.5 | 14212841 | Q4 | LV Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
24–17 |
2025 · Week 14 |
SEA -7 | 44.5 | 6122946 | Q4 | SEA Q3 | 37–9 |
2025 · Week 14 |
BUF -6 | 54.5 | 10323973 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–39 |
2025 · Week 14 |
CLE -4.5 | 33.5 | 17313860 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 31–29 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MIN -1.5 | 43.5 | 7142431 | U | MIN Q1 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MIA -2.5 | 41.5 | 28313144 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
34–10 |
2025 · Week 14 |
TB -7.5 | 41.5 | 14173444 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
24–20 |
2025 · Week 14 |
IND -2.5 | 44.5 | 21384155 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 19–36 |
2025 · Week 14 |
BAL -5.5 | 43.5 | 10264349 | Q4 | PIT Q1 | 27–22 |
2025 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 55.5 | 13294674 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 30–44 |
PHI
LAC
HOU
KC
CHI
GB
LAR
ARI
DEN
LV
SEA
ATL
CIN
BUF
TEN
CLE
WSH
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NO
TB
IND
JAX
PIT
BAL
DAL
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 71% 10
Q2 14% 2
Q3 7% 1
Q4 7% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 92% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.