When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2025 · Week 12 · pick one to list those games
29% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
All 14 games
2025 · Week 12 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 12 |
SF -7 | 48.5 | 7132629 | U | SF Q3 | 9–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
LAR -7.5 | 50.5 | 14383841 | U | LAR Q1 | 7–34 |
2025 · Week 12 |
PHI -2.5 | 48.5 | 14283545 | U | DAL Q4 | 21–24 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NO -1.5 | 40.5 | 3232334 | U | ATL Q1 | 24–10 |
2025 · Week 12 |
LV -3.5 | 36.5 | 14171734 | U | CLE Q1 | 24–10 |
2025 · Week 12 |
JAX -1.5 | 46.5 | 1424314851 | Q4 | JAX OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 12 |
CHI -2.5 | 47.5 | 14384559 | Q4 | CHI Q3 | 28–31 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NE -7.5 | 50.5 | 3303346 | U | CIN Q1 Late cover flip |
26–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
DET -14.5 | 50.5 | 1037375461 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
27–34 |
2025 · Week 12 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10162329 | U | GB Q3 | 6–23 |
2025 · Week 12 |
SEA -11.5 | 41.5 | 6194754 | Q3 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip |
30–24 |
2025 · Week 12 |
KC -4.5 | 49.5 | 723294043 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
20–23 |
2025 · Week 12 |
BAL -14.5 | 44.5 | 0102433 | U | NYJ Q1 | 10–23 |
2025 · Week 12 |
BUF -4.5 | 44.5 | 9363942 | U | HOU Q1 | 19–23 |
CAR
SF
TB
LAR
PHI
DAL
ATL
NO
CLE
LV
JAX
ARI
PIT
CHI
NE
CIN
NYG
DET
MIN
GB
SEA
TEN
IND
KC
NYJ
BAL
BUF
HOUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 57% 8
Q2 0% 0
Q3 21% 3
Q4 14% 2
OT 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 57% and covered 64% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 79% and covered 71% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 6 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.