When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2025 · Week 10 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 43% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 14% of games.
All 14 games
2025 · Week 10 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 10 |
GB -1.5 | 44.5 | 00317 | U | PHI Q1 | 10–7 |
2025 · Week 10 |
LAC -3.5 | 45.5 | 5151835 | U | LAC Q2 | 10–25 |
2025 · Week 10 |
LAR -6.5 | 49.5 | 14284268 | Q4 | LAR Q1 | 42–26 |
2025 · Week 10 |
DET -7.5 | 48.5 | 17355166 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 44–22 |
2025 · Week 10 |
SEA -7.5 | 44.5 | 21455366 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CHI -4.5 | 44.5 | 7172744 | U | NYG Q2 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BUF -8.5 | 50.5 | 7161643 | U | MIA Q1 | 13–30 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BAL -4.5 | 49.5 | 10193246 | U | BAL Q3 | 27–19 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CLE -2.5 | 37.5 | 21343447 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 | 20–27 |
2025 · Week 10 |
TB -2.5 | 48.5 | 14243751 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
28–23 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CAR -5.5 | 38.5 | 10171724 | U | NO Q1 | 17–7 |
2025 · Week 10 |
HOU -2.5 | 38.5 | 10303965 | Q3 | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–36 |
2025 · Week 10 |
IND -5.5 | 48.5 | 2027305056 | Q4 | IND OT Late cover flip Late over |
25–31 |
2025 · Week 10 |
DEN -9.5 | 41.5 | 7141717 | U | LV Q1 | 7–10 |
PHI
GB
PIT
LAC
LAR
SF
DET
WSH
ARI
SEA
NYG
CHI
BUF
MIA
BAL
MIN
CLE
NYJ
NE
TB
NO
CAR
JAX
HOU
ATL
IND
LV
DENWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 64% 9
Q2 14% 2
Q3 7% 1
Q4 7% 1
OT 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 64% and covered 73% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 77% and covered 77% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.