When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2024 · Week 6 · pick one to list those games
79% went over. Of the 11 overs, 9% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 14 games
2024 · Week 6 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 6 |
BUF -1.5 | 42.5 | 17374043 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 6 |
CIN -4.5 | 45.5 | 771724 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
17–7 |
2024 · Week 6 |
DET -3.5 | 52.5 | 10334656 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 47–9 |
2024 · Week 6 |
ATL -6.5 | 45.5 | 14394858 | Q3 | ATL Q3 | 38–20 |
2024 · Week 6 |
LAC -2.5 | 37.5 | 10202339 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
23–16 |
2024 · Week 6 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 10192945 | Q4 | PIT Q2 Late over |
32–13 |
2024 · Week 6 |
GB -6.5 | 46.5 | 7344447 | Q4 | GB Q1 | 13–34 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TEN -2.5 | 41.5 | 14202737 | U | IND Q4 | 20–17 |
2024 · Week 6 |
HOU -6.5 | 39.5 | 14214162 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 41–21 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TB -3.5 | 42.5 | 17515878 | Q2 | TB Q3 | 51–27 |
2024 · Week 6 |
PHI -8.5 | 42.5 | 0202336 | U | CLE Q1 | 16–20 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BAL -7.5 | 50.5 | 6274053 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–30 |
2024 · Week 6 |
JAX -1.5 | 44.5 | 3173151 | Q4 | CHI Q2 | 16–35 |
2024 · Week 6 |
SF -3.5 | 48.5 | 3194060 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
36–24 |
BUF
NYJ
CIN
NYG
DET
DAL
ATL
CAR
LAC
DEN
PIT
LV
ARI
GB
IND
TEN
HOU
NE
TB
NO
CLE
PHI
WSH
BAL
JAX
CHI
SF
SEAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 5
Q2 21% 3
Q3 14% 2
Q4 29% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 83% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 77% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.