When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2024 · Week 5 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 43% of games.
All 14 games
2024 · Week 5 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 5 |
KC -5.5 | 43.5 | 7232339 | U | KC Q1 | 13–26 |
2024 · Week 5 |
PIT -2.5 | 44.5 | 691637 | U | DAL Q4 | 20–17 |
2024 · Week 5 |
GB -2.5 | 49.5 | 7233743 | U | GB Q3 | 24–19 |
2024 · Week 5 |
SEA -7.5 | 41.5 | 7203349 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over |
29–20 |
2024 · Week 5 |
DEN -2.5 | 35.5 | 10233052 | Q4 | DEN Q2 | 18–34 |
2024 · Week 5 |
SF -7.5 | 48.5 | 17333647 | U | ARI Q4 Lead lost |
24–23 |
2024 · Week 5 |
CHI -3.5 | 39.5 | 14344046 | Q3 | CHI Q2 | 10–36 |
2024 · Week 5 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 731457679 | Q4 | BAL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
41–38 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 5 |
WSH -3.5 | 43.5 | 7274047 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 13–34 |
2024 · Week 5 |
JAX -3.5 | 44.5 | 7233071 | Q4 | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
34–37 |
2024 · Week 5 |
HOU -1.5 | 47.5 | 17203743 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIN -2.5 | 42.5 | 10242740 | U | MIN Q1 | 17–23 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ATL -2.5 | 43.5 | 1741476066 | Q3 | ATL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–36 |
NO
KC
DAL
PIT
GB
LAR
NYG
SEA
LV
DEN
ARI
SF
CAR
CHI
BAL
CIN
MIA
NE
CLE
WSH
IND
JAX
BUF
HOU
NYJ
MIN
TB
ATLWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 5
Q2 14% 2
Q3 7% 1
Q4 29% 4
OT 14% 2
The team leading at halftime won 62% and covered 54% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 64% and covered 57% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.