When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2024 · Week 11 · pick one to list those games
57% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
All 14 games
2024 · Week 11 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 11 |
HOU -7.5 | 41.5 | 14273044 | Q4 | HOU Q3 Late over |
34–10 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAC -0.5 | 48.5 | 10304761 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late cover flip |
27–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BUF -2.5 | 47.5 | 6303051 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
21–30 |
2024 · Week 11 |
DEN -1.5 | 44.5 | 10273444 | U | DEN Q1 | 6–38 |
2024 · Week 11 |
SF -6.5 | 48.5 | 10132337 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2024 · Week 11 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10173339 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
20–19 |
2024 · Week 11 |
DET -14.5 | 47.5 | 10344858 | Q3 | DET Q2 | 6–52 |
2024 · Week 11 |
MIN -5.5 | 40.5 | 10193336 | U | MIN Q2 | 23–13 |
2024 · Week 11 |
MIA -8.5 | 43.5 | 10162953 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late over |
19–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAR -4.5 | 42.5 | 7244150 | Q4 | LAR Q3 | 28–22 |
2024 · Week 11 |
CLE -1.5 | 43.5 | 13202849 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
14–35 |
2024 · Week 11 |
NYJ -4.5 | 43.5 | 3203355 | Q4 | IND Q1 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BAL -3.5 | 49.5 | 3162534 | U | PIT Q1 | 16–18 |
2024 · Week 11 |
PHI -4.5 | 49.5 | 7101644 | U | PHI Q4 Late cover flip |
18–26 |
HOU
DAL
CIN
LAC
KC
BUF
ATL
DEN
SEA
SF
GB
CHI
JAX
DET
MIN
TEN
LV
MIA
LAR
NE
CLE
NO
IND
NYJ
BAL
PIT
WSH
PHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 7
Q2 14% 2
Q3 14% 2
Q4 21% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 86% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 77% and covered 85% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.