When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2024 · Week 10 · pick one to list those games
29% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 7% of games.
All 14 games
2024 · Week 10 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 10 |
LAR -2.5 | 50.5 | 7162338 | U | MIA Q1 | 23–15 |
2024 · Week 10 |
DET -4.5 | 49.5 | 10303649 | U | HOU Q1 | 26–23 |
2024 · Week 10 |
PHI -7.5 | 44.5 | 10203440 | U | PHI Q2 | 34–6 |
2024 · Week 10 |
NYJ -1.5 | 46.5 | 17303737 | U | ARI Q1 | 6–31 |
2024 · Week 10 |
LAC -8.5 | 40.5 | 10203044 | Q4 | LAC Q3 Late over |
17–27 |
2024 · Week 10 |
CHI -6.5 | 37.5 | 3161622 | U | NE Q1 | 19–3 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BUF -4.5 | 46.5 | 13333350 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
30–20 |
2024 · Week 10 |
KC -7.5 | 41.5 | 0242730 | U | DEN Q1 | 14–16 |
2024 · Week 10 |
ATL -4.5 | 47.5 | 0243737 | U | NO Q1 | 17–20 |
2024 · Week 10 |
SF -6.5 | 50.5 | 7132343 | U | TB Q3 | 23–20 |
2024 · Week 10 |
WSH -1.5 | 45.5 | 14314855 | Q3 | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 10 |
MIN -7.5 | 42.5 | 10101319 | U | JAX Q1 | 12–7 |
2024 · Week 10 |
NYG -6.5 | 40.5 | 710243437 | U | CAR Q1 | 17–20 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BAL -5.5 | 52.5 | 7213569 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–35 |
MIA
LAR
DET
HOU
PHI
DAL
NYJ
ARI
TEN
LAC
NE
CHI
BUF
IND
DEN
KC
ATL
NO
SF
TB
PIT
WSH
MIN
JAX
NYG
CAR
CIN
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 71% 10
Q2 7% 1
Q3 14% 2
Q4 7% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 64% and covered 86% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 64% and covered 86% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 5 | 40% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.