When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Week 9 · pick one to list those games
25% went over. Of the 3 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 67% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 14% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Week 9 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 9 |
LAC -2 | 42 | 14202333 | U | LAC Q1 | 27–6 |
2023 · Week 9 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 21283142 | U | CIN Q1 | 18–24 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LV -3 | 38.5 | 7242736 | U | LV Q1 | 6–30 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PHI -3.5 | 46.5 | 14314551 | Q4 | PHI Q3 | 23–28 |
2023 · Week 9 |
IND -2.5 | 45 | 0233040 | U | IND Q2 | 27–13 |
2023 · Week 9 |
ATL -4.5 | 37.5 | 6214259 | Q3 | MIN Q1 | 31–28 |
2023 · Week 9 |
CLE -7.5 | 38.5 | 0132027 | U | CLE Q2 | 0–27 |
2023 · Week 9 |
GB -3 | 39.5 | 0101323 | U | GB Q2 | 3–20 |
2023 · Week 9 |
NE -2.5 | 40 | 3243737 | U | WSH Q3 | 20–17 |
2023 · Week 9 |
NO -6.5 | 41 | 14283441 | P | NO Q4 | 17–24 |
2023 · Week 9 |
BAL -6 | 44 | 0203340 | U | BAL Q2 | 3–37 |
2023 · Week 9 |
HOU -2.5 | 39.5 | 17274576 | Q3 | TB Q1 Late cover flip |
37–39 |
2023 · Week 9 |
MIA -1 | 51 | 7213535 | U | KC Q1 | 14–21 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PIT -3 | 36 | 10232936 | P | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–20 |
LAC
NYJ
BUF
CIN
NYG
LV
DAL
PHI
IND
CAR
MIN
ATL
ARI
CLE
LAR
GB
WSH
NE
CHI
NO
SEA
BAL
TB
HOU
MIA
KC
TEN
PITWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 43% 6
Q2 29% 4
Q3 14% 2
Q4 14% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 62% and covered 69% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 92% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.