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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

15 games · 2023 · Week 14 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games15100%By halftime17%In Q300%In Q4747%In OT00%Stayed under747%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands17%Over cashed533%Leader lost the game17%
53% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 0% of games.

All 15 games

2023 · Week 14 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 14
 MIA -13.5 44.5 7172355 Q4 TEN Q1
Late over Lead lost
 28–27
2023 · Week 14
 GB -5.5 37 7173446 Q4 NYG Q2
Late over
 22–24
2023 · Week 14
 DAL -3.5 52.5 10304046 U DAL Q1 13–33
2023 · Week 14
 KC -2 49 7213137 U BUF Q1 20–17
2023 · Week 14
 LAC -3 45.5 7101731 U DEN Q1 24–7
2023 · Week 14
 MIN -3 40.5 0003 U Push
Late cover flip
 3–0
2023 · Week 14
 SF -14 45.5 17243744 U SEA Q1 16–28
2023 · Week 14
 ATL -1.5 41.5 6222954 Q4 TB Q1
Late over
 29–25
2023 · Week 14
 DET -3 44.5 10233241 U CHI Q3 13–28
2023 · Week 14
 CIN -3 45 7284248 Q4 CIN Q3
Late over
 14–34
2023 · Week 14
 CLE -2.5 37.5 7213558 Q4 CLE Q1 27–31
2023 · Week 14
 NO -5.5 38.5 0172034 U NO Q2 6–28
2023 · Week 14
 HOU -3 33.5 002036 Q4 NYJ Q1
Late over
 6–30
2023 · Week 14
 BAL -7.5 42 1037426268 Q4 LAR Q1 31–37
2023 · Week 14
 PIT -5.5 30.5 10313139 Q2 NE Q1 21–18
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 67% 10
Q2 13% 2
Q3 13% 2
Q4 0% 0
OT 0% 0
Push 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 75% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 93% of 14 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
4–72100% 2
8–1010% 0
11–14450% 2
18–2120% 0
22+333% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.