When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Week 11 · pick one to list those games
29% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Week 11 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 11 |
KC -2 | 46.5 | 14243138 | U | PHI Q4 | 21–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DEN -2.5 | 43 | 3192641 | U | MIN Q2 Lead lost |
20–21 |
2023 · Week 11 |
BUF -8.5 | 39 | 6223538 | U | BUF Q2 | 6–32 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAR -2 | 46 | 7202333 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
16–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
SF -13.5 | 42 | 7203441 | U | TB Q4 | 14–27 |
2023 · Week 11 |
CLE -2.5 | 34 | 7101723 | U | CLE Q1 Late cover flip |
10–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DET -8 | 48 | 7243457 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–31 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAC -3 | 44 | 3202943 | U | GB Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 11 |
MIA -13.5 | 44 | 17273333 | U | LV Q1 | 13–20 |
2023 · Week 11 |
WSH -7.5 | 39 | 10232650 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over |
31–19 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DAL -11 | 43.5 | 7202743 | U | DAL Q4 | 33–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
JAX -6.5 | 40 | 7133448 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 14–34 |
2023 · Week 11 |
HOU -5.5 | 48 | 17313737 | U | ARI Q3 | 16–21 |
2023 · Week 11 |
BAL -3.5 | 46.5 | 10314054 | Q4 | BAL Q1 Late over |
20–34 |
PHI
KC
MIN
DEN
NYJ
BUF
SEA
LAR
TB
SF
PIT
CLE
CHI
DET
LAC
GB
LV
MIA
NYG
WSH
DAL
CAR
TEN
JAX
ARI
HOU
CIN
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 7
Q2 21% 3
Q3 7% 1
Q4 21% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 62% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 71% and covered 71% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.