When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Week 10 · pick one to list those games
57% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Week 10 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 10 |
BUF -7.5 | 47 | 3233046 | U | DEN Q1 | 24–22 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NYJ PK | 36.5 | 9151828 | U | LV Q4 | 12–16 |
2023 · Week 10 |
DAL -17.5 | 39 | 7284966 | Q3 | DAL Q2 | 17–49 |
2023 · Week 10 |
SEA -6 | 44 | 9182855 | Q4 | WSH Q1 Late over |
26–29 |
2023 · Week 10 |
ATL -2 | 43.5 | 3263948 | Q4 | ARI Q3 Late over |
23–25 |
2023 · Week 10 |
DET -2.5 | 48 | 13415579 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 41–38 |
2023 · Week 10 |
CIN -5.5 | 45.5 | 7173757 | Q4 | HOU Q2 Late over |
30–27 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NO -3 | 41 | 6273846 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 19–27 |
2023 · Week 10 |
PIT -3 | 38 | 14303942 | Q3 | PIT Q4 | 19–23 |
2023 · Week 10 |
TB -2.5 | 39 | 3102026 | U | TB Q2 | 6–20 |
2023 · Week 10 |
SF -3 | 44.5 | 10163037 | U | SF Q1 | 34–3 |
2023 · Week 10 |
BAL -6 | 39 | 20264164 | Q3 | CLE Q4 Lead lost |
33–31 |
2023 · Week 10 |
IND -1 | 42.5 | 10101016 | U | IND Q1 | 10–6 |
2023 · Week 10 |
CHI -3.5 | 38 | 10192629 | U | CAR Q4 | 13–16 |
DEN
BUF
NYJ
LV
NYG
DAL
WSH
SEA
ATL
ARI
DET
LAC
HOU
CIN
NO
MIN
GB
PIT
TEN
TB
SF
JAX
CLE
BAL
IND
NE
CAR
CHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 43% 6
Q2 21% 3
Q3 7% 1
Q4 29% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 69% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 75% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.