When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2023 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · pick one to list those games
40% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 15 games
2023 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
DET -6 | 50 | 6203454 | Q4 | DET Q4 Late over |
23–31 |
2023 · Postseason |
PHI -3 | 43 | 10253441 | U | TB Q1 | 9–32 |
2023 · Week 18 |
TB -4.5 | 36.5 | 0669 | U | TB Q2 | 9–0 |
2023 · Week 17 |
TB -2.5 | 42.5 | 7172036 | U | NO Q1 | 23–13 |
2023 · Week 16 |
JAX -1.5 | 43 | 3203642 | U | TB Q1 | 12–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
GB -4 | 41 | 10234454 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 34–20 |
2023 · Week 14 |
ATL -1.5 | 41.5 | 6222954 | Q4 | TB Q1 Late over |
29–25 |
2023 · Week 13 |
TB -3.5 | 37 | 7102439 | Q4 | CAR Q4 | 18–21 |
2023 · Week 12 |
IND -2.5 | 44.5 | 13273047 | Q4 | IND Q1 Late over |
20–27 |
2023 · Week 11 |
SF -13.5 | 42 | 7203441 | U | TB Q4 | 14–27 |
2023 · Week 10 |
TB -2.5 | 39 | 3102026 | U | TB Q2 | 6–20 |
2023 · Week 9 |
HOU -2.5 | 39.5 | 17274576 | Q3 | TB Q1 Late cover flip |
37–39 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BUF -10 | 43 | 3273442 | U | TB Q4 Late cover flip |
18–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
TB -2.5 | 37.5 | 14202329 | U | ATL Q1 | 16–13 |
2023 · Week 6 |
DET -3.5 | 42.5 | 3132326 | U | DET Q2 | 20–6 |
TB
DET
PHI
CAR
NO
JAX
GB
ATL
IND
SF
TEN
HOU
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 7
Q2 27% 4
Q3 0% 0
Q4 27% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.