1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · NFL

NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Pittsburgh Steelers ✕

When did they go over?

14 games · 2023 · Pittsburgh Steelers · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games14100%By halftime17%In Q3321%In Q4214%In OT00%Stayed under857%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands214%Over cashed17%Leader lost the game17%
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 17% had cashed by halftime and 67% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.

All 14 games

2023 · Pittsburgh Steelers · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 BUF -10 39.5 14283448 Q4 BUF Q1 17–31
2023 · Week 18
 PIT -3 34 7141427 U PIT Q4 17–10
2023 · Week 17
 SEA -4 40.5 7314153 Q3 PIT Q1 30–23
2023 · Week 16
 CIN -3 39 7244245 Q3 PIT Q1 11–34
2023 · Week 15
 IND -1 41.5 6273743 Q4 IND Q3
Late over
 13–30
2023 · Week 14
 PIT -5.5 30.5 10313139 Q2 NE Q1 21–18
2023 · Week 13
 PIT -6 41 6132034 U ARI Q1 24–10
2023 · Week 12
 PIT -2 36 0101726 U PIT Q3 16–10
2023 · Week 11
 CLE -2.5 34 7101723 U CLE Q1
Late cover flip
 10–13
2023 · Week 10
 PIT -3 38 14303942 Q3 PIT Q4 19–23
2023 · Week 9
 PIT -3 36 10232936 P PIT Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 16–20
2023 · Week 8
 JAX -2.5 41 6122730 U JAX Q1 20–10
2023 · Week 7
 LAR -3.5 43.5 0122741 U PIT Q4 24–17
2023 · Week 3
 LV -1.5 42.5 14203041 U PIT Q1 23–18
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 57% 8
Q2 0% 0
Q3 14% 2
Q4 29% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 85% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over4100% 4
4–72100% 2
8–1010% 0
11–1410% 0
15–1720% 0
18–2130% 0
22+10% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.