When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Los Angeles Chargers · pick one to list those games
29% went over. Of the 4 overs, 25% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 7% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Los Angeles Chargers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
LAC -3.5 | 35 | 7161925 | U | KC Q1 | 13–12 |
2023 · Week 17 |
DEN -3.5 | 39 | 3161925 | U | DEN Q2 | 9–16 |
2023 · Week 16 |
BUF -13 | 44 | 3243446 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over Lead lost |
24–22 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LV -3 | 36 | 21426384 | Q2 | LV Q1 | 21–63 |
2023 · Week 14 |
LAC -3 | 45.5 | 7101731 | U | DEN Q1 | 24–7 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LAC -4.5 | 38.5 | 0666 | U | LAC Q2 | 6–0 |
2023 · Week 12 |
BAL -3 | 49 | 3131630 | U | BAL Q2 Late cover flip |
20–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAC -3 | 44 | 3202943 | U | GB Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 10 |
DET -2.5 | 48 | 13415579 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 41–38 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LAC -2 | 42 | 14202333 | U | LAC Q1 | 27–6 |
2023 · Week 8 |
LAC -9.5 | 46 | 14313743 | U | LAC Q1 | 13–30 |
2023 · Week 7 |
KC -5.5 | 47.5 | 6414148 | Q4 | KC Q2 Late over |
17–31 |
2023 · Week 6 |
DAL -1.5 | 49.5 | 14172037 | U | DAL Q4 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2023 · Week 4 |
LAC -6.5 | 49 | 14313441 | U | LAC Q2 | 17–24 |
KC
LAC
DEN
BUF
LV
NE
BAL
GB
DET
NYJ
CHI
DALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 7
Q2 43% 6
Q3 0% 0
Q4 7% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 92% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 92% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.