When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Houston Texans · pick one to list those games
38% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 14% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Houston Texans · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
BAL -10 | 44 | 6202744 | P | BAL Q4 | 10–34 |
2023 · Postseason |
CLE -2.5 | 45 | 17385259 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 14–45 |
2023 · Week 18 |
HOU -1.5 | 48 | 10203142 | U | HOU Q1 | 23–19 |
2023 · Week 17 |
HOU -5.5 | 44 | 3232629 | U | HOU Q2 | 3–26 |
2023 · Week 16 |
CLE -3 | 40 | 7293558 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 36–22 |
2023 · Week 15 |
TEN -3 | 38 | 616223235 | U | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–16 |
2023 · Week 14 |
HOU -3 | 33.5 | 002036 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 Late over |
6–30 |
2023 · Week 13 |
HOU -3 | 47 | 10162639 | U | HOU Q1 | 17–22 |
2023 · Week 12 |
JAX -1 | 48 | 3203545 | U | JAX Q1 | 24–21 |
2023 · Week 11 |
HOU -5.5 | 48 | 17313737 | U | ARI Q3 | 16–21 |
2023 · Week 10 |
CIN -5.5 | 45.5 | 7173757 | Q4 | HOU Q2 Late over |
30–27 |
2023 · Week 9 |
HOU -2.5 | 39.5 | 17274576 | Q3 | TB Q1 Late cover flip |
37–39 |
2023 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 43 | 0132528 | U | CAR Q1 Lead lost |
13–15 |
2023 · Week 6 |
NO -2.5 | 41.5 | 14273333 | U | HOU Q1 | 13–20 |
HOU
BAL
CLE
IND
TEN
NYJ
DEN
JAX
ARI
CIN
TB
CAR
NOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 64% 9
Q2 14% 2
Q3 7% 1
Q4 14% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 75% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 79% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.