When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Cleveland Browns · pick one to list those games
79% went over. Of the 11 overs, 18% had cashed by halftime and 36% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Cleveland Browns · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
CLE -2.5 | 45 | 17385259 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 14–45 |
2023 · Week 18 |
CIN -7 | 37 | 14243145 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 14–31 |
2023 · Week 17 |
CLE -7 | 33.5 | 27515157 | Q2 | CLE Q1 | 20–37 |
2023 · Week 16 |
CLE -3 | 40 | 7293558 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 36–22 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CLE -2.5 | 38 | 0142437 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 14 |
CLE -2.5 | 37.5 | 7213558 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 27–31 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LAR -3.5 | 39.5 | 17233355 | Q4 | LAR Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
19–36 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DEN -2 | 37.5 | 7202941 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late over |
12–29 |
2023 · Week 11 |
CLE -2.5 | 34 | 7101723 | U | CLE Q1 Late cover flip |
10–13 |
2023 · Week 10 |
BAL -6 | 39 | 20264164 | Q3 | CLE Q4 Lead lost |
33–31 |
2023 · Week 9 |
CLE -7.5 | 38.5 | 0132027 | U | CLE Q2 | 0–27 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SEA -4 | 38.5 | 24313744 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
20–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
CLE -3.5 | 40.5 | 21485877 | Q2 | IND Q3 Lead lost |
39–38 |
2023 · Week 6 |
SF -9.5 | 35.5 | 7172336 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
17–19 |
CLE
HOU
CIN
NYJ
CHI
JAX
LAR
DEN
PIT
BAL
ARI
SEA
IND
SFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 57% 8
Q2 7% 1
Q3 14% 2
Q4 14% 2
OT 0% 0
Push 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 69% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 79% and covered 71% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.