When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Buffalo Bills · pick one to list those games
43% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Buffalo Bills · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
BUF -2.5 | 46 | 6304451 | Q4 | KC Q4 | 27–24 |
2023 · Postseason |
BUF -10 | 39.5 | 14283448 | Q4 | BUF Q1 | 17–31 |
2023 · Week 18 |
BUF -2.5 | 48 | 0212135 | U | BUF Q4 | 21–14 |
2023 · Week 17 |
BUF -15.5 | 40 | 20344148 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 21–27 |
2023 · Week 16 |
BUF -13 | 44 | 3243446 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over Lead lost |
24–22 |
2023 · Week 15 |
BUF -2.5 | 49 | 7242741 | U | BUF Q1 | 10–31 |
2023 · Week 14 |
KC -2 | 49 | 7213137 | U | BUF Q1 | 20–17 |
2023 · Week 12 |
PHI -2.5 | 48.5 | 724386271 | Q4 | PHI OT | 34–37 |
2023 · Week 11 |
BUF -8.5 | 39 | 6223538 | U | BUF Q2 | 6–32 |
2023 · Week 10 |
BUF -7.5 | 47 | 3233046 | U | DEN Q1 | 24–22 |
2023 · Week 9 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 21283142 | U | CIN Q1 | 18–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BUF -10 | 43 | 3273442 | U | TB Q4 Late cover flip |
18–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
BUF -7.5 | 39.5 | 10162654 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
25–29 |
2023 · Week 6 |
BUF -15.5 | 42.5 | 36623 | U | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
9–14 |
KC
BUF
PIT
MIA
NE
LAC
DAL
PHI
NYJ
DEN
CIN
TB
NYGWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 64% 9
Q2 7% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 21% 3
OT 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 57% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 69% and covered 54% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.