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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Baltimore Ravens ✕

When did they go over?

14 games · 2023 · Baltimore Ravens · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games14100%By halftime00%In Q3214%In Q4536%In OT00%Stayed under750%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands17%Over cashed214%Leader lost the game17%
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 43% of games.

All 14 games

2023 · Baltimore Ravens · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -4.5 44 14242427 U KC Q1 17–10
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -10 44 6202744 P BAL Q4 10–34
2023 · Week 18
 PIT -3 34 7141427 U PIT Q4 17–10
2023 · Week 17
 BAL -3 47 17414875 Q3 BAL Q2 19–56
2023 · Week 16
 SF -6.5 47 8284552 Q4 BAL Q1 33–19
2023 · Week 15
 BAL -4 42.5 3101730 U BAL Q4 23–7
2023 · Week 14
 BAL -7.5 42 1037426268 Q4 LAR Q1 31–37
2023 · Week 12
 BAL -3 49 3131630 U BAL Q2
Late cover flip
 20–10
2023 · Week 11
 BAL -3.5 46.5 10314054 Q4 BAL Q1
Late over
 20–34
2023 · Week 10
 BAL -6 39 20264164 Q3 CLE Q4
Lead lost
 33–31
2023 · Week 9
 BAL -6 44 0203340 U BAL Q2 3–37
2023 · Week 8
 BAL -9.5 45 14212855 Q4 ARI Q4
Late over
 31–24
2023 · Week 7
 BAL -3.5 43.5 14283544 Q4 BAL Q1 6–38
2023 · Week 6
 BAL -5.5 41.5 9213140 U BAL Q4 24–16
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 5
Q2 21% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 43% 6
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 83% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 85% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–32100% 2
4–71100% 1
8–101100% 1
11–1420% 0
18–21425% 1
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.