When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · Washington · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 33% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · Washington · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
MICH -5.5 | 56 | 17273347 | U | MICH Q1 | 13–34 |
2023 · Postseason |
TEX -3.5 | 61.5 | 14425268 | Q4 | WASH Q1 | 31–37 |
2023 · Week 14 |
ORE -10 | 65 | 10304465 | P | WASH Q1 | 31–34 |
2023 · Week 13 |
WASH -15.5 | 65 | 14283545 | U | WSU Q1 | 21–24 |
2023 · Week 12 |
ORST -1 | 63 | 16323942 | U | WASH Q1 | 22–20 |
2023 · Week 11 |
WASH -9 | 49 | 17526363 | Q2 | UTAH Q1 | 28–35 |
2023 · Week 10 |
WASH -3 | 75.5 | 21638494 | Q3 | WASH Q4 Late cover flip |
52–42 |
2023 · Week 9 |
WASH -27.5 | 62 | 7345475 | Q4 | STAN Q1 | 42–33 |
2023 · Week 8 |
WASH -28 | 59.5 | 0101022 | U | ASU Q1 | 7–15 |
2023 · Week 7 |
WASH -3.5 | 68.5 | 22405569 | Q4 | ORE Q3 Late over Lead lost |
33–36 |
2023 · Week 5 |
WASH -19.5 | 66 | 14314555 | U | ARIZ Q1 | 31–24 |
2023 · Week 4 |
WASH -20.5 | 55.5 | 30577191 | Q2 | WASH Q2 | 32–59 |
2023 · Week 3 |
WASH -15 | 57 | 14354148 | U | WASH Q2 | 41–7 |
2023 · Week 2 |
WASH -33 | 66 | 17253953 | U | Push Late cover flip |
10–43 |
WASH
MICH
TEX
ORE
WSU
ORST
UTAH
USC
STAN
ASU
ARIZ
CAL
MSU
TLSAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 64% 9
Q2 14% 2
Q3 7% 1
Q4 7% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 46% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 7 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.