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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

New Mexico @ Wichita St

Charles Koch Arena · at Wichita St
#82UNMNew Mexico
@
#77WICHWichita St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNMThis seasonWICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WICH 78–76 · win probability WICH 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

UNM 3, WICH 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNM 14.9%, WICH 15.0%. Forced: UNM 19.0%, WICH 15.7%
UNMSmall
Three-pointers
UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%; WICH hits 33.5% and allows 31.5%. Threes are 41.9% and 33.9% of their shots
UNMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5; WICH 49.4 and allows 47.2
WICHSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNM 30.6%, WICH 38.0%. Defensive: UNM 72.3%, WICH 71.2%
WICHSmall
Home court
WICH at home. This season: WICH 0-0 at home, UNM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNM plays 70.7 a game (87th fastest), WICH 69.3 (164th). Faster games mean more points
Even
WICH offense vs UNM defense
Offense 78th of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNM 42%, WICH 55%. Transfers in: UNM 3, WICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UNM offense vs WICH defense
Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 82nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNM has played the 97th-hardest schedule, WICH the 106th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNM 35.8, WICH 36.0. Allowed: UNM 33.3, WICH 34.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelWICH -2.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model153.2
Model edge—
Projected score
UNM 75.5 · WICH 77.7
Win probability
WICH 58%
1st half
Spread
WICH -1.2
Total
71.6
Projected score
UNM 35.2 · WICH 36.4
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: New Mexico 2, Wichita St 1, even 2
New MexicoBetterWichita St
G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
UNMSmall
G J. Long TR11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4 ast Score 72
G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
WICHSmall
G J. Frison TR16.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 93
G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54
UNMSmall
G M. Gray7.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 37
G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93
Even
G T. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 80
F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
Even
C W. Berg8.8 pts · 8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 85
New MexicoBetterWichita St
UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6
Even
WICH defense82nd of 366 · +0.2
UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9
Even
WICH offense78th of 366 · +0.8
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
UNMSmall
Backcourt+3.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player
WICHSmall
Frontcourt+2.8 · 1 player
Bench+0.9 · 1 player
Even
Bench+0.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNM betterWICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
New Mexico
Guards
J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew
Forwards
T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew
Wichita St
Guards
J. Long34 min · TRJ. Frison31 min · TRM. Gray27 minT. Williams22 minB. Heard18 min · TRJ. IghovodjaNew
Forwards
D. Battie18 minJ. Valencia13 minN. Hill5 minH. Thengvall2 min
Centers
W. Berg22 minC. Malonga11 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNMWICH
Scoring
80.8 #52Points per game77.6 #105
1.14 #70Points per possession1.12 #98
70.7 #87Pace (possessions)69.3 #164
Shooting
53.5 #82Effective FG%49.4 #274
35.6 #833-point %33.5 #195
41.9 #1363-point attempt rate33.9 #300
35.8 #160Free throw rate36.0 #149
Possessions
14.9 #59Turnover rate15.0 #62
30.6 #176Offensive rebound rate38.0 #8
14.8 #104Assists per game11.3 #325
Defense
71.6 #96Points allowed70.8 #71
1.01 #36Points allowed per possession1.02 #42
49.5 #84Opponent effective FG%47.2 #24
30.5 #20Opponent 3-point %31.5 #44
19.0 #50Turnovers forced15.7 #238
72.3 #57Defensive rebound rate71.2 #93
7.9 #43Steals per game6.0 #235
2.7 #274Blocks per game3.8 #100
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa69–74
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
  • Wvs G Washington86–61
  • Wvs Sam Houston107–83
  • Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.

Wichita St

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa79–83
  • W@ Oklahoma St96–70
  • Wvs Wyoming74–70
  • Lvs South Florida55–70
  • Wvs Tulsa81–68

A week or more of rest.