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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

UT Rio Grande @ Austin Peay

F&M Bank Arena · at Austin Peay
#287RGVUT Rio Grande
@
#210APSUAustin Peay
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RGVThis seasonAPSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects APSU 77–71 · win probability APSU 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: APSU has more of the edges

RGV 2, APSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
APSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: RGV 28.9, APSU 37.6. Allowed: RGV 39.0, APSU 32.8
APSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RGV 18.5%, APSU 15.4%. Forced: RGV 16.2%, APSU 17.9%
RGVBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8; APSU 53.0 and allows 52.2
APSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RGV 28.2%, APSU 29.7%. Defensive: RGV 67.9%, APSU 71.1%
RGVSmall
Three-pointers
RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; APSU hits 35.3% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 43.7% and 38.0% of their shots
APSUSmall
APSU offense vs RGV defense
Offense 174th of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: RGV plays 67.3 a game (268th fastest), APSU 70.1 (114th). Faster games mean more points
APSUSmall
RGV offense vs APSU defense
Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 240th, on the model’s ratings
APSUSmall
Home court
APSU at home. This season: APSU 0-0 at home, RGV 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
RGV has played the 274th-hardest schedule, APSU the 318th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RGV 9%, APSU 30%. Transfers in: RGV 3, APSU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—APSU -5.7—
Total—148.2—
Projected score—RGV 71.3 · APSU 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAPSU -3.3—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreRGV 33 · APSU 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Austin Peay has the better starters

Position by position: UT Rio Grande 1, Austin Peay 2, even 2
UT Rio GrandeBetterAustin Peay
G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41
APSUSmall
G Z. Collins13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 60
G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2
APSUBig
G C. Love TR7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 44
G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75
RGVBig
G S. Hugie TR4.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 32
G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Ryans NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. Marshall16.3 pts · 7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 92
UT Rio GrandeBetterAustin Peay
RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2
APSUSmall
APSU defense240th of 366 · -6.3
RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8
APSUSmall
APSU offense174th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players
APSUSmall
Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestRGV betterAPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Rio Grande
Guards
D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew
Forwards
T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew
Austin Peay
Guards
Z. Collins30 minC. Love25 min · TRS. Hugie12 min · TRC. RyansNewP. SingletonNewT. ToddNew
Forwards
R. Marshall30 minD. BoldenNewA. DavisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RGVAPSU
Scoring
73.7 #210Points per game79.0 #79
1.10 #137Points per possession1.13 #91
67.3 #268Pace (possessions)70.1 #114
Shooting
54.8 #44Effective FG%53.0 #105
36.8 #353-point %35.3 #99
43.7 #953-point attempt rate38.0 #215
28.9 #332Free throw rate37.6 #110
Possessions
18.5 #296Turnover rate15.4 #94
28.2 #257Offensive rebound rate29.7 #214
15.7 #58Assists per game15.3 #76
Defense
70.6 #67Points allowed74.6 #179
1.05 #86Points allowed per possession1.06 #119
47.8 #38Opponent effective FG%52.2 #227
30.4 #16Opponent 3-point %33.2 #137
16.2 #210Turnovers forced17.9 #103
67.9 #266Defensive rebound rate71.1 #100
5.9 #243Steals per game8.4 #22
2.8 #266Blocks per game2.2 #329
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs McNeese80–84
  • Wvs Nicholls86–68
  • Wvs N'Western St74–62
  • Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
  • L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

Austin Peay

20-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals83–90
  • Wvs Stetson69–60
  • L@ Bellarmine97–111
  • Lvs C Arkansas88–93
  • W@ Jacksonville65–61

A week or more of rest.