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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Grand Canyon @ Oklahoma St

Gallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St
#80GCUGrand Canyon
@
#45OKSTOklahoma St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GCUThis seasonOKST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKST 84–76 · win probability OKST 75%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 159.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

GCU 3, OKST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GCU 51.7 and allows 47.4; OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1
OKSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GCU 39.5, OKST 39.4. Allowed: GCU 39.0, OKST 31.4
GCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GCU 31.3%, OKST 30.8%. Defensive: GCU 74.7%, OKST 69.7%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: GCU plays 69.3 a game (166th fastest), OKST 74.8 (6th). Faster games mean more points
GCUSmall
Three-pointers
GCU hits 31.8% and allows 31.9%; OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 38.9% and 35.5% of their shots
OKSTSmall
OKST offense vs GCU defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 78th, on the model’s ratings
OKSTSmall
Home court
OKST at home. This season: OKST 0-0 at home, GCU 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
GCU has played the 107th-hardest schedule, OKST the 60th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GCU 51%, OKST 41%. Transfers in: GCU 9, OKST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
GCU offense vs OKST defense
Offense 83rd of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GCU 17.6%, OKST 15.7%. Forced: GCU 17.4%, OKST 15.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OKST -7.7—
Total—159.3—
Projected score—GCU 75.8 · OKST 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOKST -4.5—
1H total74.4—
1H projected scoreGCU 35 · OKST 39.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oklahoma St has the better starters

Position by position: Grand Canyon 1, Oklahoma St 2, even 2
Grand CanyonBetterOklahoma St
G J. Zimmerman TR15.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 32
OKSTBig
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
G M. Tucker TR13 pts · 2.1 reb · 3 ast Score 56
OKSTBig
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
G J. Henley17.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 97
GCUBig
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
G M. Williams14 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
Even
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
F B. Barkley TR14.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
Even
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
Grand CanyonBetterOklahoma St
GCU offense83rd of 366 · +0.4
Even
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
GCU defense78th of 366 · +0.5
OKSTSmall
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Backcourt+4.6 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
OKSTBig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
Bench+2.6 · 5 players
Even
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGCU betterOKST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Grand Canyon
Guards
J. Zimmerman33 min · TRM. Tucker32 min · TRJ. Henley32 minM. Williams27 minT. Holloman26 min · TRD. Skillings25 min · TR
Forwards
B. Barkley29 min · TRT. Behrend22 min · TRA. Dickerson22 min · TRO. Biliew20 min · TRJ. SawyerNewJ. WhortonNew
Centers
E. Demirel23 min
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GCUOKST
Scoring
75.6 #153Points per game83.9 #21
1.09 #158Points per possession1.12 #110
69.3 #166Pace (possessions)74.8 #6
Shooting
51.7 #162Effective FG%52.0 #144
31.8 #2863-point %33.9 #176
38.9 #1923-point attempt rate35.5 #260
39.5 #67Free throw rate39.4 #70
Possessions
17.6 #245Turnover rate15.7 #117
31.3 #150Offensive rebound rate30.8 #169
12.8 #230Assists per game14.6 #113
Defense
68.7 #42Points allowed83.2 #349
0.99 #22Points allowed per possession1.12 #265
47.4 #28Opponent effective FG%53.1 #272
31.9 #60Opponent 3-point %36.0 #304
17.4 #129Turnovers forced15.7 #240
74.7 #12Defensive rebound rate69.7 #178
6.6 #165Steals per game7.1 #120
3.6 #123Blocks per game2.7 #285
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grand Canyon

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada80–84
  • Wvs Fresno St85–60
  • W@ Air Force86–60
  • L@ Utah State69–74
  • Wvs UNLV80–67

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.