Carver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa · Conference game
Closing line
IOWA -10.5✓ NU covered by 4.5
IOWA -10.5✓ NU covered by 4.5Closing total139.5Over by 6.5
 NU | This season | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| 10-13 | Record | 17-5 |
| 10-13 | ATS | 15-7 |
| 11-12 | O/U | 13-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NU 67–76 IOWA · ✓ IOWA (80%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 35 | 35 | 70 |
| IOWA | 39 | 37 | 76 |
1st half: NU 35, IOWA 39 (IOWA by 4). The model had IOWA by 5.5 and a total of 66.8 (actual 74).
Team stats
| NU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-45 47% | Field goals | 24-53 45% |
| 8-14 57% | 3-pointers | 5-16 31% |
| 20-22 91% | Free throws | 23-29 79% |
| 22 3 off | Rebounds | 34 13 off |
| 10 | Assists | 12 |
| 2 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 37 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 6-19 | 3-5 |
| Jake West G | 35 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 7-8 | 4-5 |
| Jayden Reid G | 32 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-3 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 24 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Tre Singleton F | 22 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 28 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Clayton G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Arrinten Page F | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Phoenix Gill G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Max Green, Cade Bennerman, Justin Mullins, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, K.J. Windham
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz G | 40 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 12-20 | 4-6 |
| Cooper Koch F | 34 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Tavion Banks G | 30 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Kael Combs G | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 17 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 25 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Tate Sage G | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Isaia Howard G | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Trey Thompson, Peyton McCollum, Trevin Jirak, Joey Matteoni, Jacob Koch, Brendan Hausen
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIOWA -13.5
3 → NU
CloseIOWA -10.5
3 pts toward NU
Total
Open140.5
▼ 1
Close139.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
NU +575 · IOWA -850
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IOWA -13.5 · closed IOWA -10.5 · moved 3 toward NUmodel IOWA -9.5
model IOWA -9.5
Opened 140.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 1 downmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | IOWA -10.5 | IOWA -9.4 | NU +1.1 | W NU covered |
| Total | 139.5 | 142.8 | Over 3.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | NU 66.7 · IOWA 76.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | IOWA -5.5 | IOWA -4.0 |
| 1H total | 66.8 | 74 |
| 1H projected score | NU 30.7 · IOWA 36.2 | NU 35 · IOWA 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| IOWA | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
NU 2–5 IOWAIOWA leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · NU 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2024-25 | IOWA 57 @ NU 68 | NU -4.5 | NU W |
| Dec 3, 2024-25 | NU 79 @ IOWA 80 | IOWA -5.5 | NU W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | IOWA 87 @ NU 80 | NU -2.5 | IOWA W |
| Feb 19, 2022-23 | IOWA 60 @ NU 80 | NU +2.5 | NU W |
| Jan 31, 2022-23 | NU 70 @ IOWA 86 | IOWA -6.5 | IOWA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Northwestern
23 games played
Straight up
10-13
43% wins
Against the spread
10-13
43% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-12
48% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs OSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @ MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @ RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 14 | vs ILL | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs NEB | L 58-77 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ USC | W 74-68 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 24 | @ UCLA | L 64-71 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 29 | vs PSU | W 94-73 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vs WASH | L 62-76 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ILL | L 44-84 | +16.5 | L −23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−1.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
+12.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
+0.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+13.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−15.5
4
@ILL
ILLL 44-84
−23.5
covered 10didn’t cover 13avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−4.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
−7.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
−8.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+18.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−8.5
4
@ILL
ILLL 44-84
−21.5
over 11under 12avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Iowa
22 games played
Straight up
17-5
77% wins
Against the spread
15-7
68% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs RMU | W 101-69 | -22.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIU | W 77-58 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 14 | vs XAV | W 81-62 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs SEMO | W 99-70 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 20 | vs CHST | W 93-54 | -31.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | vs MISS | W 74-69 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs GCU | W 59-46 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 105 |
| Dec 2 | @MSU | L 52-71 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs MD | W 83-64 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 11 | @ ISU | L 62-66 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs WMU | W 91-51 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUCK | W 94-39 | -25.5 | W +29.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs UML | W 90-62 | -33.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 3 | vsUCLA | W 74-61 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @MINN | L 67-70 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 11 | vsILL | L 69-75 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ PUR | L 72-79 | +10.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ IU | W 74-57 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 20 | vsRUTG | W 68-62 | -17.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 28 | vsUSC | W 73-72 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Feb 1 | @ ORE | W 84-66 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 133.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 4 | @WASH | W 84-74 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | O 158 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
+3.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+5.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+7.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+0.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
+4.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−13.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+8.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
+7.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+14.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
+29.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
−5.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
+6.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
−7.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
−4.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+3.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
+20.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−11.5
28
vsUSC
USCW 73-72
−8.5
1
@ORE
OREW 84-66
+8.5
4
@WASH
WASHW 84-74
+7.5
covered 15didn’t cover 7avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
−0.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+21.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+4.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+2.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
−38.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−10.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+9.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
−13.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
−0.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
+6.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
−5.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
+6.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
+1.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+5.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
−15.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−10.5
28
vsUSC
USCW 73-72
+3.5
1
@ORE
OREW 84-66
+16.5
4
@WASH
WASHW 84-74
+16.5
over 13under 9avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Northwestern
10-13 overall · 2-10 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Illinois44–84
- Lvs Washington62–76
- Wvs Penn State94–73
- L@ UCLA64–71
- W@ USC74–68
4 days since their last game.
Iowa
17-5 overall · 7-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Washington84–74
- W@ Oregon84–66
- Wvs USC73–72
- Wvs Rutgers68–62
- W@ Indiana74–57
4 days since their last game.