State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -12.5✓ WASH covered by 3.5
ILL -12.5✓ WASH covered by 3.5Closing total153.5Under by 12.5
 WASH | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | Record | 17-3 |
| 12-8 | ATS | 13-7 |
| 7-13 | O/U | 8-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WASH 72–84 ILL · ✓ ILL (85%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 26 | 40 | 66 |
| ILL | 33 | 42 | 75 |
1st half: WASH 26, ILL 33 (ILL by 7). The model had ILL by 6.8 and a total of 73.0 (actual 59).
Team stats
| WASH | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-58 45% | Field goals | 27-63 43% |
| 6-23 26% | 3-pointers | 11-33 33% |
| 8-8 100% | Free throws | 10-16 63% |
| 34 11 off | Rebounds | 34 14 off |
| 13 | Assists | 13 |
| 3 | Steals | 4 |
| 5 | Blocks | 2 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 1 |
Players
| WASH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannes Steinbach F | 38 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Wesley Yates III G | 37 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-5 |
| Zoom Diallo G | 26 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Franck Kepnang C | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bryson Tucker F | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jacob Ognacevic F | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Quimari Peterson G | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| JJ Mandaquit G | 19 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Courtland Muldrew G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Lathan Sommerville C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jasir Rencher, Mady Traore, Christian Nitu, Desmond Claude, BJ Roy, Nikola Dzepina
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 38 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 7-13 | 2-4 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 33 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4-11 | 0-2 |
| David Mirkovic F | 31 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 7-15 | 3-8 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 29 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3-11 | 1-8 |
| Jake Davis F | 27 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 27 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Kylan Boswell, Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers, Brandon Lee, Blake Fagbemi, Mihailo Petrovic
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -12.5
ModelILL -11.6
Model edgeWASH +0.9
W WASH covered
Total
Market153.5
Model155.9
Model edgeOver 2.4
L Under
Projected score
WASH 72.2 · ILL 83.8
WASH 66 · ILL 75
Win probability
ILL 85%
1st half
Spread
ILL -6.8
ILL -7.0
Total
73.0
59 points
Projected score
WASH 33.1 · ILL 39.9
WASH 26 · ILL 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -11.5
1 → ILL
CloseILL -12.5
1 pt toward ILL
Total
Open153.5
no move
Close153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
WASH +650 · ILL -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -11.5 · closed ILL -12.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -11.5
model ILL -11.5
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 1-9 10% |
| ILL | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
WASH 0–1 ILLILL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WASH 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2024-25 | ILL 81 @ WASH 77 | WASH +6.5 | WASH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Washington
20 games played
Straight up
11-9
55% wins
Against the spread
12-8
60% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-13
35% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UAPB | W 94-50 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 6 | vs DEN | W 84-70 | -27.5 | L −13.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 9 | @ BAY | L 69-78 | +6.5 | L −2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | @ WSU | W 81-69 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs SOU | W 99-93 | -23.5 | L −17.5 | 157.5 | O 192 |
| Nov 27 | vs NEV | W 83-66 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 28 | vs COLO | L 68-81 | -2.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 3 | vs UCLA | L 80-82 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | @ USC | W 84-76 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 13 | vs SUU | W 105-69 | -25.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 19 | @ SEA | L 66-70 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 22 | vs USD | W 86-56 | -18.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 29 | vs UTAH | W 74-65 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 4 | @ IU | L 80-90 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 7 | @ PUR | L 73-81 | +16.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 11 | vs OSU | W 81-74 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 14 | vs MICH | L 72-82 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | vs MSU | L 63-80 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 21 | @ NEB | L 66-76 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 25 | vs ORE | W 72-57 | -7.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUAPB
UAPBW 94-50
+9.5
6
vsDEN
DENW 84-70
−13.5
9
@BAY
BAYL 69-78
−2.5
14
@WSU
WSUW 81-69
+3.5
18
vsSOU
SOUW 99-93
−17.5
27
vsNEV
NEVW 83-66
+13.5
28
vsCOLO
COLOL 68-81
−15.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAL 80-82
+0.5
6
@USC
USCW 84-76
+12.5
13
vsSUU
SUUW 105-69
+10.5
19
@SEA
SEAL 66-70
−11.5
22
vsUSD
USDW 86-56
+11.5
29
vsUTAH
UTAHW 74-65
−3.5
4
@IU
IUL 80-90
−0.5
7
@PUR
PURL 73-81
+8.5
11
vsOSU
OSUW 81-74
+5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 72-82
+2.5
17
vsMSU
MSUL 63-80
−13.5
21
@NEB
NEBL 66-76
+0.5
25
vsORE
OREW 72-57
+7.5
covered 12didn’t cover 8avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUAPB
UAPBW 94-50
−16.5
6
vsDEN
DENW 84-70
+0.5
9
@BAY
BAYL 69-78
−9.5
14
@WSU
WSUW 81-69
−8.5
18
vsSOU
SOUW 99-93
+34.5
27
vsNEV
NEVW 83-66
+3.5
28
vsCOLO
COLOL 68-81
−2.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAL 80-82
+20.5
6
@USC
USCW 84-76
+5.5
13
vsSUU
SUUW 105-69
+20.5
19
@SEA
SEAL 66-70
−15.5
22
vsUSD
USDW 86-56
−17.5
29
vsUTAH
UTAHW 74-65
−18.5
4
@IU
IUL 80-90
+17.5
7
@PUR
PURL 73-81
−0.5
11
vsOSU
OSUW 81-74
−0.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 72-82
−11.5
17
vsMSU
MSUL 63-80
−2.5
21
@NEB
NEBL 66-76
−10.5
25
vsORE
OREW 72-57
−14.5
over 7under 13avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
20 games played
Straight up
17-3
85% wins
Against the spread
13-7
65% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-12
40% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vsNEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vsSOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
covered 13didn’t cover 7avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
over 8under 12avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Washington
11-9 overall · 3-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oregon72–57
- L@ Nebraska66–76
- Lvs Michigan St63–80
- Lvs Michigan72–82
- Wvs Ohio State81–74
4 days since their last game.
Illinois
17-3 overall · 8-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Purdue88–82
- Wvs Maryland89–70
- Wvs Minnesota77–67
- W@ Northwestern79–68
- W@ Iowa75–69
5 days since their last game.