Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 7:00 PM ETThe Palestra · at Penn State · Conference game

#4ILLIllinois AP #2073▲ winner

Final

Closing lineILL -14.5✓ PSU covered by 6.5

Closing total156.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Illinois and Penn State
ILL	This season	PSU
10-3	Record	9-4
8-5	ATS	4-9
4-9	O/U	7-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ILL 86–72 PSU · ✓ ILL (90%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ILL	40	33	73
PSU	26	39	65

1st half: ILL 40, PSU 26 (ILL by 14). The model had ILL by 8.9 and a total of 74.1 (actual 66).

Team stats

ILL		PSU
22-56 39%	Field goals	24-69 35%
6-27 22%	3-pointers	8-38 21%
23-28 82%	Free throws	9-14 64%
48 13 off	Rebounds	37 14 off
9	Assists	11
4	Steals	7
6	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	7
17	Fouls	26
30	Points in paint	30
10	Fast-break points	7

Players

ILL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kylan Boswell G	35	18	4	0	5-13	2-5
Andrej Stojakovic G	31	12	6	1	4-9	0-2
David Mirkovic F	26	13	10	3	4-8	0-3
Keaton Wagler G	20	16	3	3	4-9	1-5
Tomislav Ivisic C	17	0	2	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Ben Humrichous F	26	5	4	0	2-4	1-3
Zvonimir Ivisic F	23	6	10	0	2-4	1-3
Jake Davis F	15	3	2	1	1-5	1-5
Mihailo Petrovic G	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Brandon Lee G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Blake Fagbemi, Ty Rodgers

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eli Rice G	28	11	4	0	4-10	2-7
Kayden Mingo G	27	16	2	5	5-12	2-8
Freddie Dilione V G	26	9	4	2	4-11	1-7
Ivan Juric F	22	8	3	0	2-8	1-5
Josh Reed F	12	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Dominick Stewart G	26	3	3	3	1-6	1-5
Melih Tunca G	22	5	3	1	2-8	0-2
Sasa Ciani F	18	6	4	0	3-6	0-0
Tibor Mirtic F	10	2	1	0	1-3	0-1
Mason Blackwood F	9	5	3	0	2-3	1-2

Did not play: Justin Houser, Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ILL -14.5	ILL -14.7	ILL +0.2	L PSU covered
Total	156.5	158.2	Over 1.7	L Under
Projected score	—	ILL 86.4 · PSU 71.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILL -8.9	ILL -14.0
1H total	74.1	66
1H projected score	ILL 41.5 · PSU 32.6	ILL 40 · PSU 26

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WWLWW	8-5	62%	1-0	7-4
PSU LLWLL	4-9	31%	2-6	1-2

Venue/role: ILL away, as favorite; PSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UOOUU	4-9	31%	10-3
PSU OOOUO	7-6	54%	9-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
PSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

ILL 2–4 PSUPSU leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · ILL 1-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 8, 2024-25	PSU 52 @ ILL 91	ILL -7.5	ILL W
Feb 21, 2023-24	ILL 89 @ PSU 90	PSU +7.5	PSU W
Mar 9, 2022-23	PSU 79 vs ILL 76	ILL -2.5	PSU W
Feb 14, 2022-23	ILL 81 @ PSU 93	PSU +3.5	PSU W
Dec 10, 2022-23	PSU 74 @ ILL 59	ILL -10.5	PSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Illinois

13 games played

Straight up

10-3

77% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-377%

W W W W L W W L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-562%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-931%

O O U U U U U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJKST	W 113-55	-28.5	W +29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsFGCU	W 113-70	-29.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsTTU	W 81-77	-3.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsCOLG	W 84-65	-30.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsALA	L 86-90	-2.5	L −6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 22	vsLIU	W 98-58	-34.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsRGV	W 87-73	-33.5	L −19.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 28	vsCONN	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsTENN	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 9	@OSU	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsNEB	L 80-83	-9.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsMIZ	W 91-48	-8.5	W +34.5	153.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsSOU	W 90-55	-33.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+29.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+13.5

TTU

W 81-77

+0.5

COLG

W 84-65

−11.5

ALA

L 86-90

−6.5

LIU

W 98-58

+5.5

RGV

W 87-73

−19.5

CONN

L 61-74

−8.5

TENN

W 75-62

+14.5

OSU

W 88-80

+4.5

NEB

L 80-83

−12.5

MIZ

W 91-48

+34.5

SOU

W 90-55

+1.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+10.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+22.5

TTU

W 81-77

−10.5

COLG

W 84-65

−15.5

ALA

L 86-90

−4.5

LIU

W 98-58

−4.5

RGV

W 87-73

−4.5

CONN

L 61-74

−15.5

TENN

W 75-62

−12.5

OSU

W 88-80

+5.5

NEB

L 80-83

+6.5

MIZ

W 91-48

−14.5

SOU

W 90-55

−18.5

over 4under 9avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

4-9

31% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-931%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

over 7under 6avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois @ Penn State

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Illinois

Penn State

Illinois

Penn State