XFINITY Center · at Maryland · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -19.5✓ MD covered by 1.5
MICH -19.5✓ MD covered by 1.5Closing total163.5Over by 20.5
| MICH | This season | MD |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | Record | 6-4 |
| 6-3 | ATS | 3-7 |
| 4-5 | O/U | 8-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MICH 90–68 MD · ✓ MICH (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 45 | 56 | 101 |
| MD | 50 | 33 | 83 |
1st half: MICH 45, MD 50 (MD by 5). The model had MICH by 13.4 and a total of 73.6 (actual 95).
Team stats
| MICH | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-58 60% | Field goals | 30-61 49% |
| 12-19 63% | 3-pointers | 14-27 52% |
| 19-22 86% | Free throws | 9-13 69% |
| 26 6 off | Rebounds | 29 11 off |
| 28 | Assists | 9 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 8 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 24 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 37 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 8-11 | 4-5 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 34 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 5-9 | 2-3 |
| Aday Mara C | 25 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 24 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 18 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 22 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| L.J. Cason G | 18 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| Trey McKenney G | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Will Tschetter F | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel, Oscar Goodman, Howard Eisley Jr., Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May
| MD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Coit G | 38 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 10-20 | 8-12 |
| George Turkson Jr. G | 32 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Andre Mills G | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Pharrel Payne F | 15 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Solomon Washington F | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elijah Saunders F | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Darius Adams G | 27 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-4 |
| Myles Rice G | 21 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Aleks Alston F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Collin Metcalf C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Guillermo Del Pino, Nick Blake, Jaziah Harper, Lukas Sotell, Isaiah Watts, Rakease Passmore
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -19.5
ModelMICH -22.0
Model edgeMICH +2.5
L MD covered
Total
Market163.5
Model157.2
Model edgeUnder 6.3
L Over
Projected score
MICH 89.6 · MD 67.6
MICH 101 · MD 83
Win probability
MICH 97%
1st half
Spread
MICH -13.4
MD -5.0
Total
73.6
95 points
Projected score
MICH 43.5 · MD 30.1
MICH 45 · MD 50
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -17.5
2 → MICH
CloseMICH -19.5
2 pts toward MICH
Total
Open149.5
▲ 14
Close163.5
Up 14 since the open
Moneyline
MICH -2400 · MD +1200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -17.5 · closed MICH -19.5 · moved 2 toward MICHmodel MICH -22
model MICH -22
Opened 149.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 14 upmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICHlast 9 | 9-0 100% | 6-3 67% | 4-5 44% |
| MD | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MICH 3–3 MDSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · MICH 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | MICH 81 vs MD 80 | MD -4.5 | MICH W |
| Mar 5, 2024-25 | MD 71 @ MICH 65 | MICH -1.5 | MD W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | MICH 57 @ MD 64 | MD -6.5 | MD W |
| Jan 19, 2022-23 | MICH 58 @ MD 64 | MD -2.5 | MD W |
| Jan 1, 2022-23 | MD 46 @ MICH 81 | MICH -0.5 | MICH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan
9 games played
Straight up
9-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +14.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +14.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
over 4under 5avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Maryland
10 games played
Straight up
6-4
60% wins
Against the spread
3-7
30% covers · avg −7.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-2
80% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COPP | W 83-61 | -28.5 | L −6.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 7 | vs GTWN | L 60-70 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs ALCN | W 84-64 | -29.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | @ MARQ | W 89-82 | +8.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs MSM | W 95-90 | -17.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 24 | vs UNLV | W 74-67 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 25 | vsGONZ | L 61-100 | +14.5 | L −24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs ALA | L 72-105 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 2 | vs WAG | W 89-63 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ IOWA | L 64-83 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
−6.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
−9.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+15.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
−12.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
+4.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
−24.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
−18.5
2
vsWAG
WAGW 89-63
+3.5
6
@IOWA
IOWAL 64-83
−8.5
covered 3didn’t cover 7avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
+4.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
+1.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+24.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
+39.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
−23.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
+3.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
+10.5
2
vsWAG
WAGW 89-63
+8.5
6
@IOWA
IOWAL 64-83
+9.5
over 8under 2avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan
9-0 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Villanova89–61
- Wvs Rutgers101–60
- Wvs Gonzaga101–61
- Wvs Auburn102–72
- Wvs San Diego St94–54
4 days since their last game.
Maryland
6-4 overall · 0-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Iowa64–83
- Wvs Wagner89–63
- Lvs Alabama72–105
- Lvs Gonzaga61–100
- Wvs UNLV74–67
A week or more of rest.