Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame · Conference game
Closing line
ND -1.5✓ FSU covered by 4.5
ND -1.5✓ FSU covered by 4.5Closing total154.5Over by 6.5
 FSU | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 10-12 | Record | 11-12 |
| 12-10 | ATS | 12-11 |
| 9-13 | O/U | 14-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FSU 77–79 ND · ✗ ND (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 41 | 41 | 82 |
| ND | 32 | 47 | 79 |
1st half: FSU 41, ND 32 (FSU by 9). The model had ND by 1.0 and a total of 72.6 (actual 73).
Team stats
| FSU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-65 38% | Field goals | 27-64 42% |
| 15-37 41% | 3-pointers | 10-31 32% |
| 17-22 77% | Free throws | 15-24 63% |
| 37 9 off | Rebounds | 47 14 off |
| 15 | Assists | 13 |
| 5 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 24 | Fouls | 19 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lajae Jones G | 33 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 30 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 8-15 | 5-10 |
| Robert McCray V G | 22 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 4-13 | 4-6 |
| Alex Steen F | 22 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 31 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| AJ Swinton F | 22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Cam Miles G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Alier Maluk, Jasen Lopez, Xavier Osceola, Max Garcia-Plata, Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 39 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5-14 | 4-12 |
| Cole Certa G | 38 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5-15 | 4-11 |
| Carson Towt F | 24 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Brady Koehler F | 19 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 15 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sir Mohammed G | 28 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-2 |
| Logan Imes G | 21 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matthew MacLellan, Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Ryder Frost, Brady Stevens, Mark Zackery IV, Kebba Njie, Markus Burton
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketND -1.5
ModelND -1.9
Model edgeND +0.4
L FSU covered
Total
Market154.5
Model155.1
Model edgeOver 0.6
W Over
Projected score
FSU 76.6 · ND 78.5
FSU 82 · ND 79
Win probability
ND 56%
1st half
Spread
ND -1.0
FSU -9.0
Total
72.6
73 points
Projected score
FSU 35.8 · ND 36.8
FSU 41 · ND 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenND -2.5
1 → FSU
CloseND -1.5
1 pt toward FSU
Total
Open153.5
▲ 1
Close154.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
FSU +100 · ND -120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ND -2.5 · closed ND -1.5 · moved 1 toward FSUmodel ND -2
model ND -2
Opened 153.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 1 upmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| ND | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
FSU 5–0 NDFSU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · FSU has won the last 5 meetings · FSU 5-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | ND 60 @ FSU 67 | FSU -2.5 | FSU W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | FSU 67 @ ND 58 | ND +1.5 | FSU W |
| Jan 17, 2022-23 | FSU 84 @ ND 71 | ND -4.5 | FSU W |
| Dec 21, 2022-23 | ND 72 @ FSU 73 | FSU +1.5 | FSU W |
| Mar 2, 2021-22 | ND 70 @ FSU 74 | FSU +3 | FSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida St
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-13
41% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @ UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs DUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs NCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @ SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @ MIA | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SMU | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 28 | vs CAL | W 63-61 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | vs STAN | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
+12.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
+8.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−1.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+4.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
−35.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
−0.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−33.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+15.5
over 9under 13avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
23 games played
Straight up
11-12
48% wins
Against the spread
12-11
52% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-9
61% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vsHOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vs CLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vsMIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @UNC | L 69-91 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vs BC | W 68-64 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 27 | vs UVA | L 97-100 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @SYR | L 72-86 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | @ LOU | L 65-76 | +19.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
−8.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−3.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+6.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
−7.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
+8.5
covered 12didn’t cover 11avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
+10.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−5.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+51.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
+10.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
−14.5
over 14under 9avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida St
10-12 overall · 3-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Stanford88–80
- Wvs California63–61
- L@ SMU80–83
- W@ Miami65–63
- Lvs Wake Forest68–69
A week or more of rest.
Notre Dame
11-12 overall · 2-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Louisville65–76
- L@ Syracuse72–86
- Lvs Virginia97–100
- Wvs Boston College68–64
- L@ North Carolina69–91
3 days since their last game.