Watsco Center · at Miami · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -10.5✓ FSU covered by 12.5
MIA -10.5✓ FSU covered by 12.5Closing total163.5Under by 35.5
 FSU | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7-11 | Record | 15-3 |
| 9-9 | ATS | 10-8 |
| 8-10 | O/U | 12-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FSU 77–88 MIA · ✗ MIA (83%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 38 | 27 | 65 |
| MIA | 37 | 26 | 63 |
1st half: FSU 38, MIA 37 (FSU by 1). The model had MIA by 6.4 and a total of 77.1 (actual 75).
Team stats
| FSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-53 45% | Field goals | 24-57 42% |
| 6-17 35% | 3-pointers | 4-16 25% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 11-15 73% |
| 30 4 off | Rebounds | 35 9 off |
| 13 | Assists | 15 |
| 12 | Steals | 7 |
| 7 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Bassong F | 31 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Robert McCray V G | 31 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 7-17 | 0-2 |
| Lajae Jones G | 31 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 31 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Alex Steen F | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 21 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| AJ Swinton F | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Cam Miles G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jasen Lopez, Xavier Osceola, Max Garcia-Plata, Alier Maluk, Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 38 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 5-14 | 1-4 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 36 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-2 |
| Malik Reneau F | 33 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 7-13 | 0-1 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 30 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Tru Washington G | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dante Allen G | 22 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1-8 | 0-4 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Timo Malovec F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ Laboy, Jordyn Kee, Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -11.5
1 → FSU
CloseMIA -10.5
1 pt toward FSU
Total
Open166.5
▼ 3
Close163.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
FSU +500 · MIA -700
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -11.5 · closed MIA -10.5 · moved 1 toward FSUmodel MIA -11
model MIA -11
Opened 166.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 3 downmodel 164.5
model 164.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIA -10.5 | MIA -11.0 | MIA +0.5 | L FSU covered |
| Total | 163.5 | 164.6 | Over 1.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | FSU 76.8 · MIA 87.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MIA -6.4 | FSU -1.0 |
| 1H total | 77.1 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | FSU 35.3 · MIA 41.7 | FSU 38 · MIA 37 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| MIA | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
FSU 7–1 MIAFSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · FSU has won the last 5 meetings · FSU 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | MIA 66 @ FSU 74 | FSU -8.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | FSU 80 @ MIA 65 | MIA -2.5 | FSU W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | MIA 75 @ FSU 83 | FSU -4.5 | FSU W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | FSU 84 @ MIA 75 | MIA -6.5 | FSU W |
| Feb 25, 2022-23 | FSU 85 @ MIA 84 | MIA -14.5 | FSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida St
18 games played
Straight up
7-11
39% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-10
44% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @ UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs DUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs NCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @ SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
over 8under 10avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
18 games played
Straight up
15-3
83% wins
Against the spread
10-8
56% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-6
67% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsJAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vsFLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
covered 10didn’t cover 8avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
over 12under 6avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida St
7-11 overall · 0-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Wake Forest68–69
- L@ Syracuse86–94
- Lvs NC State69–113
- Lvs Duke87–91
- L@ North Carolina66–79
3 days since their last game.
Miami
15-3 overall · 4-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Clemson59–69
- W@ Notre Dame81–69
- Wvs Georgia Tech91–81
- W@ Wake Forest81–77
- Wvs Pitt76–69
3 days since their last game.