Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -2.5✓ UVA covered by 1.5
UVA -2.5✓ UVA covered by 1.5Closing total153.5Under by 13.5
| UVA | This season | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 15-2 | Record | 13-4 |
| 11-6 | ATS | 8-9 |
| 7-10 | O/U | 10-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 79–80 SMU · ✗ SMU (54%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 40 | 32 | 72 |
| SMU | 37 | 31 | 68 |
1st half: UVA 40, SMU 37 (UVA by 3). The model had SMU by 0.6 and a total of 74.5 (actual 77).
Team stats
| UVA | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-60 42% | Field goals | 26-61 43% |
| 12-31 39% | 3-pointers | 5-13 38% |
| 10-12 83% | Free throws | 11-14 79% |
| 40 16 off | Rebounds | 32 12 off |
| 18 | Assists | 12 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Thomas G | 33 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 7-14 | 6-10 |
| Dallin Hall G | 31 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0-8 | 0-8 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-2 |
| Sam Lewis G | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 22 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 23 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Devin Tillis F | 14 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Jacari White G | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale, Desmond Roberts, Elijah Gertrude, Martin Carrere, Owen Odom, Carter Lang
| SMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boopie Miller G | 35 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4-12 | 0-3 |
| B.J. Edwards G | 35 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 5-9 | 3-4 |
| Jaron Pierre Jr. G | 32 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 7-16 | 1-3 |
| Corey Washington F | 27 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Samet Yigitoglu C | 26 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 3-11 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaden Toombs F | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. F | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| B.J. Davis-Ray G | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Sam Walters F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mitchell Holmes F | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chance Puryear, Trey Utter, Nigel Walls, Niccolo Kalischer-Stork, Billy White III
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -2.5
ModelSMU -1.2
Model edgeSMU +3.7
L UVA covered
Total
Market153.5
Model159.1
Model edgeOver 5.6
L Under
Projected score
UVA 78.9 · SMU 80.2
UVA 72 · SMU 68
Win probability
SMU 54%
1st half
Spread
SMU -0.6
UVA -3.0
Total
74.5
77 points
Projected score
UVA 37 · SMU 37.6
UVA 40 · SMU 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -1.5
1 → UVA
CloseUVA -2.5
1 pt toward UVA
Total
Open153.5
no move
Close153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
UVA -142 · SMU +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -1.5 · closed UVA -2.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel SMU -1
model SMU -1
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| SMU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UVA 0–2 SMUSMU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · SMU has won the last 2 meetings · UVA 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024-25 | SMU 54 @ UVA 52 | UVA +5.5 | UVA W |
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | UVA 51 @ SMU 63 | SMU -10.5 | SMU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
17 games played
Straight up
15-2
88% wins
Against the spread
11-6
65% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-10
41% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @ LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
covered 11didn’t cover 6avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
over 7under 10avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
SMU
17 games played
Straight up
13-4
76% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TAR | W 96-76 | -21.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 6 | vs AMCC | W 69-58 | -23.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 11 | vs MUR | W 102-91 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vsBTLR | W 87-85 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 18 | vs UAPB | W 106-60 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 166 |
| Nov 21 | vs ARST | W 100-69 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs RAD | W 89-72 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 28 | @ MSST | W 87-81 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ VAN | L 69-88 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 7 | vs TA&M | W 93-80 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 13 | vs LSU | L 77-89 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vs CARK | W 99-82 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 28 | vs CSUF | W 110-63 | -21.5 | W +25.5 | 170.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 3 | vs UNC | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 7 | @ CLEM | L 70-74 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ DUKE | L 75-82 | +15.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | vsVT | W 77-76 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
−1.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−12.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+0.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
−5.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
+10.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
+16.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−6.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+7.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+14.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
−10.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
−7.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+25.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+12.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−0.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+8.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−7.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
+27.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−33.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+28.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
+8.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
−2.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
−3.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−4.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+5.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+8.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
+7.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
+24.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+2.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+24.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−5.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+1.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−2.5
over 10under 7avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
15-2 overall · 4-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Louisville79–70
- Wvs Stanford70–55
- Wvs California84–60
- W@ NC State76–61
- L@ Virginia Tech85–95
4 days since their last game.
SMU
13-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Virginia Tech77–76
- L@ Duke75–82
- L@ Clemson70–74
- Wvs North Carolina97–83
- Wvs Fullerton110–63
3 days since their last game.