Tucker Center · at Florida St · Conference game
Closing line
WAKE -1.5✓ FSU covered by 0.5
WAKE -1.5✓ FSU covered by 0.5Closing total168.5Under by 31.5
| WAKE | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-7 | Record | 7-10 |
| 7-10 | ATS | 8-9 |
| 10-7 | O/U | 8-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WAKE 83–82 FSU · ✓ WAKE (55%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| FSU | 34 | 34 | 68 |
1st half: WAKE 31, FSU 34 (FSU by 3). The model had WAKE by 1.1 and a total of 77.1 (actual 65).
Team stats
| WAKE | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-63 41% | Field goals | 22-58 38% |
| 8-34 24% | 3-pointers | 7-31 23% |
| 9-12 75% | Free throws | 17-19 89% |
| 28 9 off | Rebounds | 44 16 off |
| 8 | Assists | 10 |
| 10 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| WAKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juke Harris G | 38 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 4-13 | 3-10 |
| Myles Colvin G | 37 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 5-13 | 2-8 |
| Nate Calmese G | 35 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 8-19 | 2-10 |
| Cooper Schwieger F | 28 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Omaha Biliew F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tre'Von Spillers F | 32 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Mekhi Mason G | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Sebastian Akins G | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Marqus Marion F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Underwood, Owen Kmety, Dimitrije Kovacevic, Anson Beard Jr., Isaac Carr, Jaylen Cross, Vincent Ricchiuti
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 35 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-4 |
| Robert McCray V G | 31 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 3-10 | 1-4 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 29 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Martin Somerville G | 23 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-5 |
| Alex Steen F | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lajae Jones G | 29 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3-11 | 1-6 |
| AJ Swinton F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Cam Miles G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Jasen Lopez, Xavier Osceola, Max Garcia-Plata, Alier Maluk, Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketWAKE -1.5
ModelWAKE -1.6
Model edgeWAKE +0.1
L FSU covered
Total
Market168.5
Model164.7
Model edgeUnder 3.8
W Under
Projected score
WAKE 83.1 · FSU 81.6
WAKE 69 · FSU 68
Win probability
WAKE 55%
1st half
Spread
WAKE -1.1
FSU -3.0
Total
77.1
65 points
Projected score
WAKE 39.1 · FSU 38
WAKE 31 · FSU 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWAKE -2.5
1 → FSU
CloseWAKE -1.5
1 pt toward FSU
Total
Open166.5
▲ 2
Close168.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
WAKE -118 · FSU -102
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WAKE -2.5 · closed WAKE -1.5 · moved 1 toward FSUmodel WAKE -1.5 matches the line
model WAKE -1.5 = line ✓
Opened 166.5 · closed 168.5 · moved 2 upmodel 164.5
model 164.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| FSU | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
WAKE 3–2 FSUWAKE leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · FSU has won the last 2 meetings · WAKE 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | FSU 72 @ WAKE 70 | WAKE -6.5 | FSU W |
| Jan 9, 2023-24 | WAKE 82 @ FSU 87 | FSU +2.5 | FSU W |
| Jan 11, 2022-23 | FSU 75 @ WAKE 90 | WAKE -8.5 | WAKE W |
| Feb 5, 2021-22 | WAKE 68 @ FSU 60 | FSU -2 | WAKE W |
| Jan 4, 2021-22 | FSU 54 @ WAKE 76 | WAKE -1 | WAKE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wake Forest
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
7-10
41% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AMER | W 88-74 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MORE | W 81-65 | -22.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | vs MICH | L 84-85 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs UML | W 109-75 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 20 | vs TTU | L 83-84 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs MEM | W 69-68 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAM | W 99-51 | -17.5 | W +30.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 28 | vs NE | W 86-73 | -17.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs OU | L 68-86 | -4.5 | L −22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs WVU | W 75-66 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs QUC | W 111-73 | -18.5 | W +19.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 17 | vs LONG | W 71-68 | -24.5 | L −21.5 | 163.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs VAN | L 67-98 | +5.5 | L −25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | @ NCSU | L 57-70 | +10.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs VT | W 81-78 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIA | L 77-81 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | @ UNC | L 84-87 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
−5.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+14.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+3.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+8.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−1.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
+30.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
−4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−22.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
+11.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+19.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−21.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
−25.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−2.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
−2.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
−5.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+7.5
covered 7didn’t cover 10avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
+22.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+0.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−23.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
−9.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
+4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−5.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
−2.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+18.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−24.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
+0.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−32.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
+5.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
+0.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+16.5
over 10under 7avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
17 games played
Straight up
7-10
41% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg −6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-9
47% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs DUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vsNCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @ SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
over 8under 9avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wake Forest
10-7 overall · 1-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ North Carolina84–87
- Lvs Miami77–81
- Wvs Virginia Tech81–78
- L@ NC State57–70
- Lvs Vanderbilt67–98
A week or more of rest.
Florida St
7-10 overall · 0-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Syracuse86–94
- Lvs NC State69–113
- Lvs Duke87–91
- L@ North Carolina66–79
- Wvs Jacksonville87–63
4 days since their last game.