Haas Pavilion · at California · Conference game
Closing line
CAL -3.5✓ ND covered by 2.5
CAL -3.5✓ ND covered by 2.5Closing total138.5Over by 4.5
 ND | This season | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10-4 | Record | 11-2 |
| 9-5 | ATS | 7-6 |
| 7-7 | O/U | 5-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ND 70–72 CAL · ✓ CAL (57%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 31 | 40 | 71 |
| CAL | 27 | 45 | 72 |
1st half: ND 31, CAL 27 (ND by 4). The model had CAL by 1.0 and a total of 66.7 (actual 58).
Team stats
| ND | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-55 40% | Field goals | 26-64 41% |
| 11-31 35% | 3-pointers | 11-39 28% |
| 16-26 62% | Free throws | 9-12 75% |
| 44 12 off | Rebounds | 34 9 off |
| 14 | Assists | 13 |
| 0 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 1 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Imes G | 35 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 31 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 5-9 | 2-3 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 31 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 5-17 | 5-12 |
| Carson Towt F | 28 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 22 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cole Certa G | 24 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Kebba Njie F | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Brady Koehler F | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Mark Zackery IV G | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matthew MacLellan, Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Ryder Frost, Brady Stevens, Markus Burton
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dai Dai Ames G | 34 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 9-16 | 4-9 |
| John Camden F | 31 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1-10 | 1-9 |
| Chris Bell F | 31 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-7 |
| Justin Pippen G | 29 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Lee Dort F | 23 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nolan Dorsey G | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Semetri Carr G | 17 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Milos Ilic C | 15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Stephon Marbury II, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Sammie Yeanay, Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut, Jovani Ruff, Rytis Petraitis, DeJuan Campbell
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCAL -3.5
ModelCAL -2.0
Model edgeND +1.5
W ND covered
Total
Market138.5
Model142.3
Model edgeOver 3.8
W Over
Projected score
ND 70.2 · CAL 72.1
ND 71 · CAL 72
Win probability
CAL 57%
1st half
Spread
CAL -1.0
ND -4.0
Total
66.7
58 points
Projected score
ND 32.8 · CAL 33.9
ND 31 · CAL 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCAL -3.5
no move
CloseCAL -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open138.5
no move
Close138.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ND +142 · CAL -170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CAL -3.5 · unchangedmodel CAL -2
model CAL -2
Opened 138.5 · unchangedmodel 142.5
model 142.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| CAL | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ND 1–0 CALND leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ND 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | CAL 110 @ ND 112 | ND -4.5 | CAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Notre Dame
14 games played
Straight up
10-4
71% wins
Against the spread
9-5
64% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @ STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
over 7under 7avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
California
13 games played
Straight up
11-2
85% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vs LOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
over 5under 8avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Notre Dame
10-4 overall · 1-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Stanford47–40
- Lvs Purdue FW69–72
- Wvs Evansville82–58
- Wvs Idaho80–65
- W@ TCU87–85
3 days since their last game.
California
11-2 overall · 0-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Louisville70–90
- Wvs Columbia74–56
- Wvs Morgan St97–50
- Wvs N'Western St79–70
- Wvs Pacific67–61
3 days since their last game.