Clune Arena · at Air Force · Conference game
Closing line
USU -22.5✓ USU covered by 14.5
USU -22.5✓ USU covered by 14.5Closing total139.5Over by 21.5
| USU | This season | AF |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | Record | 3-11 |
| 6-6 | ATS | 6-8 |
| 6-6 | O/U | 5-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USU 81–59 AF · ✓ USU (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 45 | 54 | 99 |
| AF | 31 | 31 | 62 |
1st half: USU 45, AF 31 (USU by 14). The model had USU by 13.3 and a total of 65.3 (actual 76).
Team stats
| USU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-65 58% | Field goals | 21-51 41% |
| 12-26 46% | 3-pointers | 6-20 30% |
| 11-17 65% | Free throws | 14-19 74% |
| 40 14 off | Rebounds | 25 7 off |
| 23 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| USU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Falslev G | 27 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| MJ Collins Jr. G | 24 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 8-14 | 2-6 |
| Zach Keller F | 15 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Adlan Elamin F | 14 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-2 |
| Drake Allen G | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kolby King G | 24 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Elijah Perryman G | 22 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Garry Clark F | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jordy Barnes G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Tucker Anderson F | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Karson Templin F | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Luke Kearney F | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
Did not play: David Iweze, Kingston Tosi, Brayden Boe
| AF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Robinson F | 34 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Kam Sanders G | 28 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Caleb Walker F | 26 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Justin Hinds G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kolby Gilles F | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lucas Hobin F | 27 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-10 | 3-7 |
| Ethan Greenberg G | 26 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0-9 | 0-7 |
| A.J. Patterson G | 16 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Wesley Celichowski C | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Sam Imade F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Josh Gatete F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brendan Martin F | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
Did not play: Kyle Marshall, Elliott Taite, Riley Dering, Keaton Frisch, Chris Catchings
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSU -22.5
ModelUSU -22.1
Model edgeAF +0.4
L USU covered
Total
Market139.5
Model139.4
Model edgeUnder 0.1
L Over
Projected score
USU 80.7 · AF 58.7
USU 99 · AF 62
Win probability
USU 97%
1st half
Spread
USU -13.3
USU -14.0
Total
65.3
76 points
Projected score
USU 39.3 · AF 26
USU 45 · AF 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSU -21.5
1 → USU
CloseUSU -22.5
1 pt toward USU
Total
Open137.5
▲ 2
Close139.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
USU -4500 · AF +1700
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USU -21.5 · closed USU -22.5 · moved 1 toward USUmodel USU -22
model USU -22
Opened 137.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 2 upmodel 139.5 matches the line
model 139.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| AF | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
USU 8–1 AFUSU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · USU has won the last 8 meetings · USU 7-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | AF 47 @ USU 87 | USU -22.5 | USU W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | USU 87 @ AF 58 | AF +14.5 | USU W |
| Mar 1, 2023-24 | AF 60 @ USU 72 | USU -16.5 | AF W |
| Jan 2, 2023-24 | USU 88 @ AF 60 | AF +7.5 | USU W |
| Feb 14, 2022-23 | AF 65 @ USU 80 | USU -13.5 | USU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Utah State
12 games played
Straight up
11-1
92% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs VCU | W 80-77 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs WEB | W 83-73 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 15 | vs UTEP | W 75-51 | -16.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 21 | vs TULN | W 96-75 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DAV | W 94-60 | -9.5 | W +24.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 29 | vs MTST | W 84-81 | -17.5 | L −14.5 | 148.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 4 | @ USF | L 61-74 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 162.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 7 | @ CLT | W 79-53 | -10.5 | W +15.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 13 | vs ILST | W 83-78 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs CSU | W 100-58 | -10.5 | W +31.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 30 | @ FRES | W 72-63 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 154.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 3 | vs SJSU | W 96-78 | -22.5 | L −4.5 | 151.5 | O 174 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsVCU
VCUW 80-77
+0.5
12
vsWEB
WEBW 83-73
−12.5
15
vsUTEP
UTEPW 75-51
+7.5
21
vsTULN
TULNW 96-75
+12.5
23
vsDAV
DAVW 94-60
+24.5
29
vsMTST
MTSTW 84-81
−14.5
4
@USF
USFL 61-74
−10.5
7
@CLT
CLTW 79-53
+15.5
13
vsILST
ILSTW 83-78
−3.5
20
vsCSU
CSUW 100-58
+31.5
30
@FRES
FRESW 72-63
−5.5
3
vsSJSU
SJSUW 96-78
−4.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsVCU
VCUW 80-77
−6.5
12
vsWEB
WEBW 83-73
−0.5
15
vsUTEP
UTEPW 75-51
−23.5
21
vsTULN
TULNW 96-75
+19.5
23
vsDAV
DAVW 94-60
+6.5
29
vsMTST
MTSTW 84-81
+16.5
4
@USF
USFL 61-74
−27.5
7
@CLT
CLTW 79-53
−7.5
13
vsILST
ILSTW 83-78
+12.5
20
vsCSU
CSUW 100-58
+10.5
30
@FRES
FRESW 72-63
−19.5
3
vsSJSU
SJSUW 96-78
+22.5
over 6under 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Air Force
14 games played
Straight up
3-11
21% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BEL | L 63-79 | +15.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs APSU | L 54-74 | +1.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 11 | vs LIU | L 72-76 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | vs M-OH | L 61-76 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALST | W 66-64 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 138.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 21 | vs SIUE | W 77-63 | +2.5 | W +16.5 | 130.5 | O 140 |
| Nov 23 | vs IUIN | W 98-85 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 175.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNCO | L 53-71 | +4.5 | L −13.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 29 | vs SDAK | L 63-80 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 3 | vs PAC | L 65-80 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 134.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 7 | @ NAVY | L 56-61 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 133.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 17 | @ SDSU | L 58-81 | +24.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 139 |
| Dec 30 | vs WYO | L 56-68 | +14.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 3 | @ UNLV | L 39-67 | +14.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | U 106 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−0.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−18.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+1.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−4.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−0.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+16.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+9.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−13.5
29
vsSDAK
SDAKL 63-80
−13.5
3
vsPAC
PACL 65-80
−9.5
7
@NAVY
NAVYL 56-61
+4.5
17
@SDSU
SDSUL 58-81
+1.5
30
vsWYO
WYOL 56-68
+2.5
3
@UNLV
UNLVL 39-67
−13.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−2.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−8.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+10.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−6.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−8.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+9.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+7.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−22.5
29
vsSDAK
SDAKL 63-80
−4.5
3
vsPAC
PACL 65-80
+10.5
7
@NAVY
NAVYL 56-61
−16.5
17
@SDSU
SDSUL 58-81
+3.5
30
vsWYO
WYOL 56-68
−22.5
3
@UNLV
UNLVL 39-67
−36.5
over 5under 9avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Utah State
11-1 overall · 3-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs San José St96–78
- W@ Fresno St72–63
- Wvs Colorado St100–58
- Wvs Illinois St83–78
- W@ Charlotte79–53
3 days since their last game.
Air Force
3-11 overall · 0-3 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UNLV39–67
- Lvs Wyoming56–68
- L@ San Diego St58–81
- L@ Navy56–61
- Lvs Pacific65–80
3 days since their last game.