Millett Hall · at Miami OH · Conference game
Closing line
M-OH -7.5✓ M-OH covered by 8.5
M-OH -7.5✓ M-OH covered by 8.5Closing total163.5Over by 0.5
 OHIO | This season | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| 11-12 | Record | 21-0 |
| 9-14 | ATS | 14-7 |
| 12-11 | O/U | 15-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OHIO 79–87 M-OH · ✓ M-OH (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 35 | 39 | 74 |
| M-OH | 43 | 47 | 90 |
1st half: OHIO 35, M-OH 43 (M-OH by 8). The model had M-OH by 4.7 and a total of 77.4 (actual 78).
Team stats
| OHIO | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-60 47% | Field goals | 30-58 52% |
| 5-21 24% | 3-pointers | 9-18 50% |
| 13-20 65% | Free throws | 21-28 75% |
| 29 7 off | Rebounds | 38 8 off |
| 9 | Assists | 16 |
| 4 | Steals | 2 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 37 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 7-16 | 1-5 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 36 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| JJ Kelly G | 26 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-2 |
| Javan Simmons F | 26 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 24 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4-10 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kiir Kuany F | 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Jesse Burris G | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Jalen Breath F | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Dior Conners G | 12 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Jordan Fisher, Carter Reese, Zay Mosley, Ayden Evans, Chase Boals, Elijah Elliott
| M-OH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brant Byers F | 35 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-2 |
| Peter Suder G | 34 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 8-12 | 0-1 |
| Luke Skaljac G | 32 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 5-11 | 2-5 |
| Eian Elmer G | 25 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-3 |
| Antwone Woolfolk F | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justin Kirby G | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-3 |
| Almar Atlason F | 20 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Trey Perry G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Robbins F | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brady Ganley, Kyle Waltz, Leshawn Stowers, Eli Yofan, Evan Ipsaro, Jackson Kotecki, Ethan Wright, Blake Anderson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketM-OH -7.5
ModelM-OH -8.0
Model edgeM-OH +0.5
W M-OH covered
Total
Market163.5
Model165.6
Model edgeOver 2.1
W Over
Projected score
OHIO 78.8 · M-OH 86.8
OHIO 74 · M-OH 90
Win probability
M-OH 76%
1st half
Spread
M-OH -4.7
M-OH -8.0
Total
77.4
78 points
Projected score
OHIO 36.4 · M-OH 41
OHIO 35 · M-OH 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenM-OH -9.5
2 → OHIO
CloseM-OH -7.5
2 pts toward OHIO
Total
Open161.5
▲ 2
Close163.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
OHIO +340 · M-OH -440
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened M-OH -9.5 · closed M-OH -7.5 · moved 2 toward OHIOmodel M-OH -8
model M-OH -8
Opened 161.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 2 upmodel 165.5
model 165.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| M-OH | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
OHIO 6–2 M-OHOHIO leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · OHIO 6-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | M-OH 66 @ OHIO 75 | OHIO -6.5 | OHIO W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | OHIO 69 @ M-OH 73 | M-OH -5.5 | OHIO W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | OHIO 72 @ M-OH 59 | M-OH +3.5 | OHIO W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | M-OH 69 @ OHIO 78 | OHIO -7.5 | OHIO W |
| Feb 25, 2022-23 | OHIO 68 @ M-OH 85 | M-OH +6.5 | M-OH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ohio
23 games played
Straight up
11-12
48% wins
Against the spread
9-14
39% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-11
52% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs BGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @ EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vs MASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vs BUF | W 91-80 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @ TOL | L 85-101 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ BALL | L 71-76 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | vs NIU | W 80-77 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 23 | vs AKR | L 65-86 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 27 | @ KENT | L 57-72 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 31 | @BUF | W 95-83 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vs WMU | W 91-71 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ ODU | L 72-78 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+6.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
−13.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−10.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
−8.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−14.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−9.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+14.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+9.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−9.5
covered 9didn’t cover 14avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+14.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
+24.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−0.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
+2.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−16.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−33.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+21.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+6.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−6.5
over 12under 11avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami OH
21 games played
Straight up
21-0
100% wins
Against the spread
14-7
67% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-6
71% overs · avg +7.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsODU | W 87-72 | -16.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 15 | @ AF | W 76-61 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 20 | vs MERC | W 76-71 | -15.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs UAPB | W 111-84 | -21.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNCG | W 82-71 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 6 | vsME | W 93-61 | -17.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 10 | @ UNCA | W 90-87 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 13 | @ EKU | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 16 | @ WRST | W 83-76 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @BALL | W 86-77 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 30 | @BGSU | W 93-83 | +6.5 | W +16.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | vsAKR | W 76-73 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vsWMU | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 9 | @TOL | W 87-73 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsCMU | W 100-61 | -15.5 | W +23.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 17 | vsBUF | W 105-102 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | @KENT | W 107-101 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 167.5 | O 208 |
| Jan 27 | vsMASS | W 86-84 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | vsNIU | W 85-61 | -16.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | @BUF | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @MRSH | W 90-74 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsODU
ODUW 87-72
−1.5
15
@AF
AFW 76-61
+4.5
20
vsMERC
MERCW 76-71
−10.5
23
vsUAPB
UAPBW 111-84
+5.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGW 82-71
+0.5
6
vsME
MEW 93-61
+14.5
10
@UNCA
UNCAW 90-87
−3.5
13
@EKU
EKUW 79-69
+4.5
16
@WRST
WRSTW 83-76
+5.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 86-77
+1.5
30
@BGSU
BGSUW 93-83
+16.5
3
vsAKR
AKRW 76-73
+7.5
6
vsWMU
WMUW 87-76
−3.5
9
@TOL
TOLW 87-73
+15.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 100-61
+23.5
17
vsBUF
BUFW 105-102
−7.5
20
@KENT
KENTW 107-101
+7.5
27
vsMASS
MASSW 86-84
−7.5
31
vsNIU
NIUW 85-61
+7.5
3
@BUF
BUFW 73-71
−2.5
7
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-74
+14.5
covered 14didn’t cover 7avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsODU
ODUW 87-72
+5.5
15
@AF
AFW 76-61
−6.5
20
vsMERC
MERCW 76-71
+7.5
23
vsUAPB
UAPBW 111-84
+34.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGW 82-71
+2.5
6
vsME
MEW 93-61
+14.5
10
@UNCA
UNCAW 90-87
+24.5
13
@EKU
EKUW 79-69
−10.5
16
@WRST
WRSTW 83-76
+9.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 86-77
+15.5
30
@BGSU
BGSUW 93-83
+25.5
3
vsAKR
AKRW 76-73
−28.5
6
vsWMU
WMUW 87-76
+2.5
9
@TOL
TOLW 87-73
−6.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 100-61
+2.5
17
vsBUF
BUFW 105-102
+44.5
20
@KENT
KENTW 107-101
+40.5
27
vsMASS
MASSW 86-84
+5.5
31
vsNIU
NIUW 85-61
−12.5
3
@BUF
BUFW 73-71
−21.5
7
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-74
+1.5
over 15under 6avg +7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ohio
11-12 overall · 7-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Old Dominion72–78
- Wvs W Michigan91–71
- W@ Buffalo95–83
- L@ Kent State57–72
- Lvs Akron65–86
6 days since their last game.
Miami OH
21-0 overall · 11-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Marshall90–74
- W@ Buffalo73–71
- Wvs N Illinois85–61
- Wvs UMass86–84
- W@ Kent State107–101
6 days since their last game.