Broadview Arena · at Buffalo · Conference game
Closing line
BUF -2.5✓ OHIO covered by 14.5
BUF -2.5✓ OHIO covered by 14.5Closing total156.5Over by 21.5
 OHIO | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 9-11 | Record | 12-7 |
| 7-13 | ATS | 12-7 |
| 10-10 | O/U | 11-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OHIO 78–80 BUF · ✗ BUF (55%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 46 | 49 | 95 |
| BUF | 31 | 52 | 83 |
1st half: OHIO 46, BUF 31 (OHIO by 15). The model had BUF by 0.8 and a total of 74.0 (actual 77).
Team stats
| OHIO | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-66 53% | Field goals | 29-52 56% |
| 5-19 26% | 3-pointers | 6-14 43% |
| 20-26 77% | Free throws | 19-27 70% |
| 34 13 off | Rebounds | 30 6 off |
| 19 | Assists | 15 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 0 | Blocks | 2 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 20 | Fouls | 23 |
| 50 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Kelly G | 37 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 6-13 | 2-7 |
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 36 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Javan Simmons F | 34 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10-16 | 0-0 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 34 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 29 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 9-11 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kiir Kuany F | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Jesse Burris G | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jalen Breath F | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dior Conners G | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher, Chase Boals, Elijah Elliott, Ayden Evans
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 38 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 8-15 | 3-6 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 36 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Daniel Freitag G | 31 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 6-12 | 2-5 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 24 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Tim Oboh F | 17 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 24 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 17 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Jones G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Daniel Shao, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -3.5
1 → OHIO
CloseBUF -2.5
1 pt toward OHIO
Total
Open156.5
no move
Close156.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
OHIO +120 · BUF -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -3.5 · closed BUF -2.5 · moved 1 toward OHIOmodel BUF -1.5
model BUF -1.5
Opened 156.5 · unchangedmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -2.5 | BUF -1.6 | OHIO +0.9 | W OHIO covered |
| Total | 156.5 | 158.1 | Over 1.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | OHIO 78.3 · BUF 79.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BUF -0.8 | OHIO -15.0 |
| 1H total | 74.0 | 77 |
| 1H projected score | OHIO 36.6 · BUF 37.4 | OHIO 46 · BUF 31 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
| BUF | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
OHIO 6–1 BUFOHIO leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · OHIO has won the last 5 meetings · OHIO 5-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025-26 | BUF 80 @ OHIO 91 | OHIO -4.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 7, 2024-25 | OHIO 88 @ BUF 79 | BUF +12.5 | BUF W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | OHIO 78 @ BUF 66 | BUF +11.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | BUF 70 @ OHIO 91 | OHIO -13.5 | OHIO W |
| Feb 14, 2022-23 | BUF 61 @ OHIO 85 | OHIO -4.5 | OHIO W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ohio
20 games played
Straight up
9-11
45% wins
Against the spread
7-13
35% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-10
50% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs BGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @ EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vs MASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsBUF | W 91-80 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @ TOL | L 85-101 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ BALL | L 71-76 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | vs NIU | W 80-77 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 23 | vs AKR | L 65-86 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 27 | @ KENT | L 57-72 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 129 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+6.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
−13.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−10.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
−8.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−14.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−9.5
covered 7didn’t cover 13avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+14.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
+24.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−0.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
+2.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−16.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−33.5
over 10under 10avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
19 games played
Straight up
12-7
63% wins
Against the spread
12-7
63% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-8
58% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vsSBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vsBALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vsKENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vsAKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vsMASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
covered 12didn’t cover 7avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
over 11under 8avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ohio
9-11 overall · 5-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kent State57–72
- Lvs Akron65–86
- Wvs N Illinois80–77
- L@ Ball State71–76
- L@ Toledo85–101
4 days since their last game.
Buffalo
12-7 overall · 4-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Bowling Green89–78
- Lvs UMass67–68
- Lvs Akron63–82
- L@ Miami OH102–105
- Lvs Kent State81–87
4 days since their last game.