Millett Hall · at Miami OH · Conference game
Closing line
M-OH -10.5✓ BUF covered by 7.5
M-OH -10.5✓ BUF covered by 7.5Closing total162.5Over by 44.5
 BUF | This season | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| 11-4 | Record | 15-0 |
| 10-5 | ATS | 11-4 |
| 9-6 | O/U | 11-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 75–86 M-OH · ✓ M-OH (82%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 48 | 40 | 14 | 102 |
| M-OH | 46 | 42 | 17 | 105 |
1st half: BUF 48, M-OH 46 (BUF by 2). The model had M-OH by 6.0 and a total of 75.3 (actual 94).
Team stats
| BUF | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-65 54% | Field goals | 38-66 58% |
| 13-26 50% | 3-pointers | 13-29 45% |
| 19-23 83% | Free throws | 16-26 62% |
| 36 8 off | Rebounds | 31 5 off |
| 17 | Assists | 19 |
| 7 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 7 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 41 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 8-14 | 4-9 |
| Daniel Freitag G | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 3-14 | 2-6 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 36 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 33 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 9-12 | 4-5 |
| Tim Oboh F | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 28 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
| M-OH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Suder G | 41 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 13-22 | 7-10 |
| Luke Skaljac G | 39 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6-12 | 1-5 |
| Brant Byers F | 39 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Eian Elmer G | 37 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 7-9 | 3-5 |
| Antwone Woolfolk F | 34 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justin Kirby G | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Almar Atlason F | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-5 |
| Trey Perry G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Robbins F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brady Ganley, Leshawn Stowers, Kyle Waltz, Ethan Wright, Blake Anderson, Jackson Kotecki, Evan Ipsaro, Eli Yofan
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketM-OH -10.5
ModelM-OH -10.3
Model edgeBUF +0.2
W BUF covered
Total
Market162.5
Model160.8
Model edgeUnder 1.7
L Over
Projected score
BUF 75.3 · M-OH 85.6
BUF 102 · M-OH 105
Win probability
M-OH 82%
1st half
Spread
M-OH -6.0
BUF -2.0
Total
75.3
94 points
Projected score
BUF 34.6 · M-OH 40.7
BUF 48 · M-OH 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenM-OH -9.5
1 → M-OH
CloseM-OH -10.5
1 pt toward M-OH
Total
Open159.5
▲ 3
Close162.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +455 · M-OH -625
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened M-OH -9.5 · closed M-OH -10.5 · moved 1 toward M-OHmodel M-OH -10.5 matches the line
model M-OH -10.5 = line ✓
Opened 159.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 3 upmodel 161
model 161
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| M-OH | 10-0 100% | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
BUF 2–5 M-OHM-OH leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · M-OH has won the last 3 meetings · BUF 0-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | M-OH 84 @ BUF 69 | BUF +8.5 | M-OH W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | BUF 79 @ M-OH 93 | M-OH -11.5 | M-OH W |
| Jan 9, 2023-24 | M-OH 86 @ BUF 65 | BUF -1.5 | M-OH W |
| Mar 3, 2022-23 | M-OH 63 @ BUF 68 | BUF -8.5 | M-OH W |
| Jan 10, 2022-23 | BUF 80 @ M-OH 91 | M-OH +3.5 | M-OH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
15 games played
Straight up
11-4
73% wins
Against the spread
10-5
67% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-6
60% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs BALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
covered 10didn’t cover 5avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
over 9under 6avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami OH
15 games played
Straight up
15-0
100% wins
Against the spread
11-4
73% covers · avg +5.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-4
73% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ODU | W 87-72 | -16.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 15 | @ AF | W 76-61 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 20 | vs MERC | W 76-71 | -15.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs UAPB | W 111-84 | -21.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNCG | W 82-71 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 6 | vs ME | W 93-61 | -17.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 10 | @ UNCA | W 90-87 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 13 | @ EKU | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 16 | @ WRST | W 83-76 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @BALL | W 86-77 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 30 | @ BGSU | W 93-83 | +6.5 | W +16.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | vs AKR | W 76-73 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vsWMU | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 9 | @ TOL | W 87-73 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs CMU | W 100-61 | -15.5 | W +23.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsODU
ODUW 87-72
−1.5
15
@AF
AFW 76-61
+4.5
20
vsMERC
MERCW 76-71
−10.5
23
vsUAPB
UAPBW 111-84
+5.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGW 82-71
+0.5
6
vsME
MEW 93-61
+14.5
10
@UNCA
UNCAW 90-87
−3.5
13
@EKU
EKUW 79-69
+4.5
16
@WRST
WRSTW 83-76
+5.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 86-77
+1.5
30
@BGSU
BGSUW 93-83
+16.5
3
vsAKR
AKRW 76-73
+7.5
6
vsWMU
WMUW 87-76
−3.5
9
@TOL
TOLW 87-73
+15.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 100-61
+23.5
covered 11didn’t cover 4avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsODU
ODUW 87-72
+5.5
15
@AF
AFW 76-61
−6.5
20
vsMERC
MERCW 76-71
+7.5
23
vsUAPB
UAPBW 111-84
+34.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGW 82-71
+2.5
6
vsME
MEW 93-61
+14.5
10
@UNCA
UNCAW 90-87
+24.5
13
@EKU
EKUW 79-69
−10.5
16
@WRST
WRSTW 83-76
+9.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 86-77
+15.5
30
@BGSU
BGSUW 93-83
+25.5
3
vsAKR
AKRW 76-73
−28.5
6
vsWMU
WMUW 87-76
+2.5
9
@TOL
TOLW 87-73
−6.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 100-61
+2.5
over 11under 4avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
11-4 overall · 3-2 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Kent State81–87
- L@ Ohio80–91
- Wvs Ball State85–72
- W@ N Illinois81–67
- W@ W Michigan88–71
4 days since their last game.
Miami OH
15-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs C Michigan100–61
- W@ Toledo87–73
- Wvs W Michigan87–76
- Wvs Akron76–73
- W@ Bowling Green93–83
4 days since their last game.