Savage Arena · at Toledo · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -2.5✓ TOL covered by 13.5
TOL -2.5✓ TOL covered by 13.5Closing total161.5Over by 24.5
 OHIO | This season | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | Record | 7-7 |
| 7-8 | ATS | 6-8 |
| 8-7 | O/U | 5-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OHIO 80–81 TOL · ✓ TOL (54%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 50 | 35 | 85 |
| TOL | 52 | 49 | 101 |
1st half: OHIO 50, TOL 52 (TOL by 2). The model had TOL by 0.5 and a total of 75.5 (actual 102).
Team stats
| OHIO | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-64 50% | Field goals | 39-63 62% |
| 9-23 39% | 3-pointers | 7-17 41% |
| 12-19 63% | Free throws | 16-17 94% |
| 27 14 off | Rebounds | 33 11 off |
| 11 | Assists | 22 |
| 5 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 36 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 8-17 | 1-4 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 34 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| Javan Simmons F | 30 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 8-13 | 0-1 |
| JJ Kelly G | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 27 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 6-11 | 3-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jesse Burris G | 14 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Kiir Kuany F | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Dior Conners G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Breath F | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elijah Elliott, Chase Boals, Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher, Ayden Evans
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 37 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 9-14 | 1-3 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 35 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 8-12 | 4-6 |
| Sean Craig F | 35 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 7-12 | 0-2 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 29 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Austin Parks C | 18 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 23 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Mynor Strong G | 13 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Will James Jr. G | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Ode G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Toby Nwokolo F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| London Praytor F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Phoenix Glassnor G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chris Riddle
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTOL -2.5
ModelTOL -1.1
Model edgeOHIO +1.4
L TOL covered
Total
Market161.5
Model161.2
Model edgeUnder 0.3
L Over
Projected score
OHIO 80 · TOL 81.1
OHIO 85 · TOL 101
Win probability
TOL 54%
1st half
Spread
TOL -0.5
TOL -2.0
Total
75.5
102 points
Projected score
OHIO 37.5 · TOL 38
OHIO 50 · TOL 52
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -2.5
no move
CloseTOL -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
▲ 4
Close161.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
OHIO +114 · TOL -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -2.5 · unchangedmodel TOL -1
model TOL -1
Opened 157.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 4 upmodel 161
model 161
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| TOL | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
OHIO 0–9 TOLTOL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 9 meetings · OHIO 1-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | OHIO 85 vs TOL 90 | TOL +2.5 | TOL W |
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | OHIO 82 @ TOL 96 | TOL +1.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | TOL 86 @ OHIO 83 | OHIO -3.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 16, 2023-24 | OHIO 83 @ TOL 85 | TOL -5.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 2, 2023-24 | TOL 86 @ OHIO 77 | OHIO -1.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ohio
15 games played
Straight up
8-7
53% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs BGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @ EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vs MASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vs BUF | W 91-80 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+6.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+14.5
over 8under 7avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Toledo
14 games played
Straight up
7-7
50% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vsMRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vs M-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
over 5under 9avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ohio
8-7 overall · 4-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Buffalo91–80
- Wvs UMass86–83
- W@ E Michigan68–67
- W@ C Michigan80–64
- Lvs Bowling Green58–68
3 days since their last game.
Toledo
7-7 overall · 3-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami OH73–87
- W@ N Illinois75–61
- W@ C Michigan78–75
- Wvs W Michigan84–79
- L@ Michigan St69–92
4 days since their last game.