Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield · Conference game
Closing line
FAIR -6.5✓ FAIR covered by 29.5
FAIR -6.5✓ FAIR covered by 29.5Closing total158.5Over by 1.5
 MAN | This season | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| 7-10 | Record | 9-7 |
| 7-10 | ATS | 6-10 |
| 7-10 | O/U | 8-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MAN 76–82 FAIR · ✓ FAIR (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | 23 | 39 | 62 |
| FAIR | 47 | 51 | 98 |
1st half: MAN 23, FAIR 47 (FAIR by 24). The model had FAIR by 3.3 and a total of 74.2 (actual 70).
Team stats
| MAN | FAIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-56 36% | Field goals | 36-63 57% |
| 3-18 17% | 3-pointers | 12-24 50% |
| 19-24 79% | Free throws | 14-22 64% |
| 30 9 off | Rebounds | 41 11 off |
| 8 | Assists | 22 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 0 | Blocks | 10 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| MAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Winston G | 30 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Fraser Roxburgh F | 25 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-6 |
| Devin Dinkins G | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Marko Ljubicic F | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Erik Oliver-Bush G | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Isaac Jr. F | 27 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-0 |
| Terrance Jones G | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Quron Elliott G | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Brett Rumpel G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Asier Miguel G | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Omari Moore G | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jackson Delaney G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Michael Lawlor F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Aryan Arora G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaeden Robley, Louis Fairtlough, Jameson Borodawka, Nick Lukmann, Will Sydnor
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Benjamin F | 26 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Braden Sparks G | 26 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2-9 | 1-5 |
| Tony Williams G | 22 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Declan Wucherpfennig G | 22 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-1 |
| Halon Rawlins G | 20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Deuce Turner G | 18 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 7-10 | 3-5 |
| Ryan Zan F | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Nasir Rodriguez G | 15 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Eric Mejia G | 15 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Isaac Munkadi F | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Michael Rogan G | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tanner Ostop G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Luke Davidson G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joe Ganton G | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Peyton Smith, Aidan May, Matt Curtis, Cam Estevez, Noah Best
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFAIR -6.5
ModelFAIR -5.8
Model edgeMAN +0.7
L FAIR covered
Total
Market158.5
Model158.4
Model edgeUnder 0.1
L Over
Projected score
MAN 76.3 · FAIR 82.1
MAN 62 · FAIR 98
Win probability
FAIR 69%
1st half
Spread
FAIR -3.3
FAIR -24.0
Total
74.2
70 points
Projected score
MAN 35.4 · FAIR 38.7
MAN 23 · FAIR 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFAIR -5.5
1 → FAIR
CloseFAIR -6.5
1 pt toward FAIR
Total
Open156.5
▲ 2
Close158.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MAN +225 · FAIR -278
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FAIR -5.5 · closed FAIR -6.5 · moved 1 toward FAIRmodel FAIR -6
model FAIR -6
Opened 156.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 2 upmodel 158.5 matches the line
model 158.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| FAIR | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MAN 5–4 FAIRMAN leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MAN has won the last 2 meetings · MAN 7-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025-26 | FAIR 66 @ MAN 70 | MAN +1.5 | MAN W |
| Feb 16, 2024-25 | MAN 80 @ FAIR 67 | FAIR +1.5 | MAN W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | FAIR 87 @ MAN 84 | MAN -3.5 | FAIR W |
| Feb 4, 2023-24 | MAN 68 @ FAIR 77 | FAIR -9.5 | MAN W |
| Jan 21, 2023-24 | FAIR 82 @ MAN 75 | MAN +8.5 | MAN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Manhattan
17 games played
Straight up
7-10
41% wins
Against the spread
7-10
41% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-10
41% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ USC | L 83-114 | +28.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTU | W 79-75 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 14 | @ HAW | L 56-86 | +15.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 15 | vs MVSU | W 80-73 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 21 | @ TA&M | L 68-109 | +23.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs WAG | L 101-103 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 29 | @ ARMY | L 78-81 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 5 | vsFAIR | W 70-66 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 7 | @ MRST | L 68-80 | +7.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 13 | @ FOR | L 53-82 | +8.5 | L −20.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 18 | vs FUR | L 68-75 | +10.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 21 | vs PRES | W 87-81 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 29 | @ RID | W 74-71 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 2 | vs QUIN | W 80-79 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 4 | @ MRMK | L 66-73 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 9 | vs CAN | L 64-70 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 11 | vs NIA | W 79-70 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@USC
USCL 83-114
−2.5
12
vsUTU
UTUW 79-75
+6.5
14
@HAW
HAWL 56-86
−14.5
15
vsMVSU
MVSUW 80-73
−13.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-109
−17.5
26
vsWAG
WAGL 101-103
−4.5
29
@ARMY
ARMYL 78-81
−4.5
5
vsFAIR
FAIRW 70-66
+5.5
7
@MRST
MRSTL 68-80
−4.5
13
@FOR
FORL 53-82
−20.5
18
vsFUR
FURL 68-75
+3.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 87-81
+8.5
29
@RID
RIDW 74-71
+0.5
2
vsQUIN
QUINW 80-79
+8.5
4
@MRMK
MRMKL 66-73
−0.5
9
vsCAN
CANL 64-70
−13.5
11
vsNIA
NIAW 79-70
+3.5
covered 7didn’t cover 10avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@USC
USCL 83-114
+41.5
12
vsUTU
UTUW 79-75
−4.5
14
@HAW
HAWL 56-86
−14.5
15
vsMVSU
MVSUW 80-73
−1.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-109
+14.5
26
vsWAG
WAGL 101-103
+59.5
29
@ARMY
ARMYL 78-81
+6.5
5
vsFAIR
FAIRW 70-66
−19.5
7
@MRST
MRSTL 68-80
+7.5
13
@FOR
FORL 53-82
−12.5
18
vsFUR
FURL 68-75
−11.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 87-81
+29.5
29
@RID
RIDW 74-71
−2.5
2
vsQUIN
QUINW 80-79
−0.5
4
@MRMK
MRMKL 66-73
−9.5
9
vsCAN
CANL 64-70
−11.5
11
vsNIA
NIAW 79-70
+8.5
over 7under 10avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Fairfield
16 games played
Straight up
9-7
56% wins
Against the spread
6-10
38% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-8
50% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ PSU | L 68-76 | +15.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NJIT | W 74-53 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 10 | @ HALL | L 59-82 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs STO | W 73-71 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 16 | vs L-MD | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 22 | @ LEM | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 26 | vs COLU | L 77-106 | +3.5 | L −25.5 | 150.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 30 | vs UNH | W 72-68 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 5 | @MAN | L 66-70 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 7 | @MRMK | L 63-74 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 14 | vs MONM | W 73-65 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | @ CCSU | W 84-70 | +6.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 29 | vs SPU | L 66-70 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 2 | @CAN | L 81-85 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 4 | @NIA | W 83-75 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 9 | vsRID | W 68-62 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
+7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
+14.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
−8.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
−4.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
−2.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+12.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
−25.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−5.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−5.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
+10.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+20.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−6.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
−10.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+4.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−2.5
covered 6didn’t cover 10avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
−7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
−18.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
+3.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
+0.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
+31.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+34.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
+32.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−7.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−19.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
−5.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+10.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−4.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
+25.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+19.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−15.5
over 8under 8avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Manhattan
7-10 overall · 4-3 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Niagara79–70
- Lvs Canisius64–70
- L@ Merrimack66–73
- Wvs Quinnipiac80–79
- W@ Rider74–71
3 days since their last game.
Fairfield
9-7 overall · 2-4 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Rider68–62
- W@ Niagara83–75
- L@ Canisius81–85
- Lvs Saint Peter's66–70
- W@ C Connecticut84–70
5 days since their last game.