Patrick Gymnasium · at Vermont · Conference game
Closing line
UVM -8.5✓ UVM covered by 0.5
UVM -8.5✓ UVM covered by 0.5Closing total141.5Under by 22.5
 UMBC | This season | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| 10-7 | Record | 11-8 |
| 8-9 | ATS | 9-10 |
| 8-9 | O/U | 12-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UMBC 70–76 UVM · ✓ UVM (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 29 | 26 | 55 |
| UVM | 29 | 35 | 64 |
1st half: UMBC 29, UVM 29 (tied). The model had UVM by 3.5 and a total of 68.5 (actual 58).
Team stats
| UMBC | UVM | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-52 33% | Field goals | 20-49 41% |
| 6-26 23% | 3-pointers | 11-30 37% |
| 15-21 71% | Free throws | 13-22 59% |
| 33 5 off | Rebounds | 37 5 off |
| 7 | Assists | 13 |
| 4 | Steals | 1 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 12 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 1 |
Players
| UMBC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Valentine G | 35 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| DJ Armstrong Jr. G | 33 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
| Jah'Likai King G | 28 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-10 | 2-7 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn F | 28 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4-12 | 2-6 |
| Josh Odunowo F | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caden Diggs F | 29 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Riley Jacobs F | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Daylon Dickerson F | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Cougar Downing G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jake Stout, Tim Eze, Devin Ceaser, Paul Greene, Saahil Thakkar, Regimantas Ciunys
| UVM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Blake G | 33 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| TJ Hurley G | 33 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 7-11 | 4-8 |
| Ben Johnson G | 30 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 3-6 |
| Gus Yalden F | 29 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2-13 | 0-6 |
| Benjamin Michaels F | 28 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lucas Mari G | 23 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-7 |
| Noah Barnett F | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Skipper F | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| David Simon F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ben Wesson, TJ Long, Drew Bessette, Sincere Clemons, Trey Woodyard, Chris Kuzemka, Momo Nkugwa
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVM -8.5
ModelUVM -6.0
Model edgeUMBC +2.5
L UVM covered
Total
Market141.5
Model146.3
Model edgeOver 4.8
L Under
Projected score
UMBC 70.1 · UVM 76.2
UMBC 55 · UVM 64
Win probability
UVM 70%
1st half
Spread
UVM -3.5
tied
Total
68.5
58 points
Projected score
UMBC 32.5 · UVM 36
UMBC 29 · UVM 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVM -7.5
1 → UVM
CloseUVM -8.5
1 pt toward UVM
Total
Open139.5
▲ 2
Close141.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
UMBC +310 · UVM -395
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVM -7.5 · closed UVM -8.5 · moved 1 toward UVMmodel UVM -6
model UVM -6
Opened 139.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 2 upmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| UVM | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UMBC 1–8 UVMUVM leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UMBC 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | UVM 79 @ UMBC 69 | UMBC +8.5 | UVM W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | UMBC 80 @ UVM 63 | UVM -5.5 | UMBC W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | UVM 72 @ UMBC 70 | UMBC +12 | UMBC W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | UMBC 72 @ UVM 77 | UVM -17.5 | UMBC W |
| Jan 28, 2022-23 | UMBC 68 @ UVM 74 | UVM -9.5 | UMBC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UMBC
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-9
47% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ DAY | L 71-77 | +25.5 | W +19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ MORG | W 81-79 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 16 | vs WAG | W 71-70 | -6.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 19 | @ GW | L 52-89 | +22.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 29 | vs DSU | W 71-57 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 138.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | @ GTWN | L 81-90 | +19.5 | W +10.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 6 | @ BUCK | W 73-66 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 9 | vs BUF | L 79-83 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 12 | vs ARMY | L 60-63 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 21 | @ USF | L 69-94 | +22.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 29 | @ COPP | W 93-59 | -10.5 | W +23.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 8 | vs ME | W 69-62 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 133.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vs UNH | W 75-74 | -6.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 15 | @ BRY | L 74-79 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 19 | @ BING | W 78-60 | -4.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 22 | vs NJIT | W 87-74 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 24 | vs UML | W 79-56 | -2.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
+19.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
−5.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−14.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
+0.5
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+10.5
6
@BUCK
BUCKW 73-66
+8.5
9
vsBUF
BUFL 79-83
−0.5
12
vsARMY
ARMYL 60-63
−10.5
21
@USF
USFL 69-94
−2.5
29
@COPP
COPPW 93-59
+23.5
8
vsME
MEW 69-62
−0.5
10
vsUNH
UNHW 75-74
−5.5
15
@BRY
BRYL 74-79
−6.5
19
@BING
BINGW 78-60
+13.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 87-74
+6.5
24
vsUML
UMLW 79-56
+20.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
−6.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
+0.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−19.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
−10.5
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+21.5
6
@BUCK
BUCKW 73-66
−4.5
9
vsBUF
BUFL 79-83
+16.5
12
vsARMY
ARMYL 60-63
−23.5
21
@USF
USFL 69-94
+2.5
29
@COPP
COPPW 93-59
+3.5
8
vsME
MEW 69-62
−2.5
10
vsUNH
UNHW 75-74
+5.5
15
@BRY
BRYL 74-79
+17.5
19
@BING
BINGW 78-60
−2.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 87-74
+17.5
24
vsUML
UMLW 79-56
−16.5
over 8under 9avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Vermont
19 games played
Straight up
11-8
58% wins
Against the spread
9-10
47% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-7
63% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ BRWN | W 89-84 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 131.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 15 | @ NE | W 85-74 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 134.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 18 | @BUF | L 90-94 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs LIB | L 73-79 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs URI | L 65-80 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 26 | vs PRIN | W 79-74 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 30 | vs YALE | L 74-77 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ORST | L 58-80 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | @ PEPP | W 65-56 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 14 | vs MRMK | W 66-59 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 136.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 17 | vs SIE | W 83-69 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 134.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 20 | vs IONA | L 78-83 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | @PRIN | L 69-75 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 136.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 3 | @UNH | W 80-61 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vsBING | W 60-59 | -20.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 15 | vsME | W 67-62 | -14.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 19 | @ UALB | L 68-75 | -5.5 | L −12.5 | 139.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 22 | @UML | W 77-68 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 24 | @BRY | W 62-52 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 133.5 | U 114 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
−0.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+12.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
−5.5
24
vsLIB
LIBL 73-79
+2.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
−10.5
26
vsPRIN
PRINW 79-74
−0.5
30
vsYALE
YALEL 74-77
+3.5
3
@ORST
ORSTL 58-80
−18.5
6
@PEPP
PEPPW 65-56
+7.5
14
vsMRMK
MRMKW 66-59
+0.5
17
vsSIE
SIEW 83-69
+11.5
20
vsIONA
IONAL 78-83
−11.5
30
@PRIN
PRINL 69-75
−9.5
3
@UNH
UNHW 80-61
+11.5
8
vsBING
BINGW 60-59
−19.5
15
vsME
MEW 67-62
−9.5
19
@UALB
UALBL 68-75
−12.5
22
@UML
UMLW 77-68
+4.5
24
@BRY
BRYW 62-52
+1.5
covered 9didn’t cover 10avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
+41.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+24.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
+42.5
24
vsLIB
LIBL 73-79
+10.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
+0.5
26
vsPRIN
PRINW 79-74
+12.5
30
vsYALE
YALEL 74-77
+3.5
3
@ORST
ORSTL 58-80
−5.5
6
@PEPP
PEPPW 65-56
−21.5
14
vsMRMK
MRMKW 66-59
−11.5
17
vsSIE
SIEW 83-69
+17.5
20
vsIONA
IONAL 78-83
+8.5
30
@PRIN
PRINL 69-75
+7.5
3
@UNH
UNHW 80-61
+1.5
8
vsBING
BINGW 60-59
−21.5
15
vsME
MEW 67-62
−1.5
19
@UALB
UALBL 68-75
+3.5
22
@UML
UMLW 77-68
−0.5
24
@BRY
BRYW 62-52
−19.5
over 12under 7avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UMBC
10-7 overall · 5-1 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UMass Lowell79–56
- Wvs NJIT87–74
- W@ Binghamton78–60
- L@ Bryant74–79
- Wvs New Hampshire75–74
5 days since their last game.
Vermont
11-8 overall · 5-1 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Bryant62–52
- W@ UMass Lowell77–68
- L@ UAlbany68–75
- Wvs Maine67–62
- Wvs Binghamton60–59
5 days since their last game.