The Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara · Conference game
Closing line
HAW -2.5✓ UCSB covered by 17.5
HAW -2.5✓ UCSB covered by 17.5Closing total143.5Under by 4.5
| HAW | This season | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3 | Record | 8-7 |
| 6-6 | ATS | 4-11 |
| 3-9 | O/U | 8-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HAW 75–70 UCSB · ✗ HAW (69%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 21 | 41 | 62 |
| UCSB | 40 | 37 | 77 |
1st half: HAW 21, UCSB 40 (UCSB by 19). The model had HAW by 3.4 and a total of 67.8 (actual 61).
Team stats
| HAW | UCSB | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-53 42% | Field goals | 29-53 55% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 7-18 39% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 28 11 off | Rebounds | 32 9 off |
| 11 | Assists | 10 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 1 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| HAW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hunkin-Claytor G | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Hunter Erickson G | 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Harry Rouhliadeff F | 28 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 5-6 | 1-1 |
| Dre Bullock G | 23 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Isaac Johnson C | 19 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gytis Nemeiksa F | 25 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Isaiah Kerr G | 22 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Isaac Finlinson F | 12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Yacine Toumi F | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hunter Carter, AJ Economou, Jalen Myers, Tanner Cuff
| UCSB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney G | 34 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 6-11 | 3-6 |
| Miro Little G | 28 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3-9 | 3-5 |
| Colin Smith F | 27 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Marvin McGhee IV G | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Evans Kipruto C | 13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| CJ Shaw G | 27 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Zion Sensley G | 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Hosana Kitenge F | 23 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Michael Simcoe F | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kyle Haughy, John Simcoe, Luke Zuffelato, ZZ Clark, Bryce Bedgood, Koat Keat Tong, Jason Fontenet II, Isaac Shingange
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHAW -2.5
ModelHAW -5.6
Model edgeHAW +3.1
L UCSB covered
Total
Market143.5
Model144.8
Model edgeOver 1.3
L Under
Projected score
HAW 75.2 · UCSB 69.6
HAW 62 · UCSB 77
Win probability
HAW 69%
1st half
Spread
HAW -3.4
UCSB -19.0
Total
67.8
61 points
Projected score
HAW 35.6 · UCSB 32.2
HAW 21 · UCSB 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHAW -1.5
1 → HAW
CloseHAW -2.5
1 pt toward HAW
Total
Open144.5
▼ 1
Close143.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
HAW -142 · UCSB +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HAW -1.5 · closed HAW -2.5 · moved 1 toward HAWmodel HAW -5.5
model HAW -5.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 1 downmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 8-2 80% | 3-5 38% | 2-6 25% |
| UCSB | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
HAW 1–7 UCSBUCSB leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UCSB has won the last 7 meetings · HAW 2-5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | HAW 72 @ UCSB 76 | UCSB -5.5 | HAW W |
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | UCSB 64 @ HAW 61 | HAW -2.5 | UCSB W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | HAW 71 @ UCSB 77 | UCSB -1.5 | UCSB W |
| Jan 25, 2023-24 | UCSB 78 @ HAW 61 | HAW -3.5 | UCSB W |
| Mar 4, 2022-23 | HAW 61 @ UCSB 81 | UCSB -4.5 | UCSB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Hawai'i
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-9
25% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ ORE | L 59-60 | +11.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 10 | vs ETAM | W 100-74 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 145.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MVSU | W 88-56 | -41.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 14 | vs MAN | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 15 | vs UTU | W 68-62 | -16.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 20 | vs ASU | L 76-83 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs UND | W 92-55 | -18.5 | W +18.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 4 | vs UCD | W 75-69 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 6 | vs CSUF | W 69-59 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13 | vs UTEP | W 66-61 | -12.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 1 | @ UCR | W 88-45 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 149.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 3 | @ UCSD | L 73-83 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | vs UCI | W 67-66 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 15 | @ CP | W 86-66 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@ORE
OREL 59-60
+10.5
10
vsETAM
ETAMW 100-74
+7.5
12
vsMVSU
MVSUW 88-56
−9.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 86-56
+14.5
15
vsUTU
UTUW 68-62
−10.5
20
vsASU
ASUL 76-83
−8.5
28
vsUND
UNDW 92-55
+18.5
13
vsUTEP
UTEPW 66-61
−7.5
1
@UCR
UCRW 88-45
+34.5
3
@UCSD
UCSDL 73-83
−7.5
10
vsUCI
UCIW 67-66
−3.5
15
@CP
CPW 86-66
+14.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@ORE
OREL 59-60
−25.5
10
vsETAM
ETAMW 100-74
+28.5
12
vsMVSU
MVSUW 88-56
−7.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 86-56
−14.5
15
vsUTU
UTUW 68-62
−19.5
20
vsASU
ASUL 76-83
+15.5
28
vsUND
UNDW 92-55
−2.5
13
vsUTEP
UTEPW 66-61
−11.5
1
@UCR
UCRW 88-45
−16.5
3
@UCSD
UCSDL 73-83
+7.5
10
vsUCI
UCIW 67-66
−7.5
15
@CP
CPW 86-66
−8.5
over 3under 9avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Santa Barbara
15 games played
Straight up
8-7
53% wins
Against the spread
4-11
27% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SJSU | W 85-74 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ SAC | W 92-87 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 17 | vs LMU | L 74-78 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 22 | @ NEV | L 64-77 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEH | W 72-70 | -10.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs SEA | W 74-71 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 4 | vs LBSU | W 84-77 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 6 | vs CSUB | W 109-84 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 13 | vs UVU | L 53-68 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 17 | @ GB | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 22 | vs PORT | W 79-61 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 1 | @CSUF | L 84-95 | -3.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | @ CSUN | L 65-74 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 8 | vsUCD | L 86-93 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 15 | @CSUB | W 75-69 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+1.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
−2.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
−7.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−7.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−8.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+5.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
−6.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+12.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−9.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−10.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
+8.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
−14.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−6.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
−11.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−1.5
covered 4didn’t cover 11avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+12.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
+17.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
+6.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−6.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−4.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+2.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
+19.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+47.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−25.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−9.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
−7.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
+23.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−17.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
+31.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−0.5
over 8under 7avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Hawai'i
11-3 overall · 5-1 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Cal Poly86–66
- Wvs UC Irvine67–66
- L@ UC San Diego73–83
- W@ UC Riverside88–45
- Wvs UTEP66–61
2 days since their last game.
Santa Barbara
8-7 overall · 3-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Bakersfield75–69
- Lvs UC Davis86–93
- L@ CSU Northridge65–74
- L@ Fullerton84–95
- Wvs Portland79–61
2 days since their last game.