The HTC Center · at Coastal · Conference game
Closing line
CCU -2.5✓ CCU covered by 15.5
CCU -2.5✓ CCU covered by 15.5Closing total141.5Over by 10.5
 USM | This season | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-10 | Record | 11-9 |
| 7-12 | ATS | 11-9 |
| 11-8 | O/U | 10-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 73–73 CCU · ✓ CCU (52%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 25 | 42 | 67 |
| CCU | 39 | 46 | 85 |
1st half: USM 25, CCU 39 (CCU by 14). The model had CCU by 0.2 and a total of 68.4 (actual 64).
Team stats
| USM | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-54 44% | Field goals | 29-51 57% |
| 4-13 31% | 3-pointers | 14-23 61% |
| 15-23 65% | Free throws | 13-17 76% |
| 23 5 off | Rebounds | 36 6 off |
| 6 | Assists | 13 |
| 12 | Steals | 7 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 36 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 35 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 9-20 | 0-2 |
| Djahi Binet F | 30 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Israel Hart G | 27 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 7-12 | 2-3 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brewer Carruth G | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Curt Lewis G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Tegra Izay C | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Felipe Patino G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Robert Cowherd G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| EJ Paymon F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Dalyn Brandon, IJ Ezuma, Isaac Taveras, Chandler Watts, Blake Lander
| CCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasheed Jones G | 39 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 8-13 | 7-10 |
| AJ Dancler G | 36 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 6-9 | 4-5 |
| Reggie Hill F | 30 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Joshua Beadle G | 27 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 7-14 | 0-1 |
| Nadjrick Peat F | 22 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Green F | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Tristan Thompson G | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| DaJohn Craig G | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Braeden MacVicar F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jerry Ngopot, Jackson Keil, Charles Dunlap, Andre Mulibea, Devin Brown, Connor Martin
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCCU -2.5
ModelCCU -0.5
Model edgeUSM +2.0
L CCU covered
Total
Market141.5
Model146.0
Model edgeOver 4.5
W Over
Projected score
USM 72.8 · CCU 73.2
USM 67 · CCU 85
Win probability
CCU 52%
1st half
Spread
CCU -0.2
CCU -14.0
Total
68.4
64 points
Projected score
USM 34.1 · CCU 34.3
USM 25 · CCU 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCCU -2.5
no move
CloseCCU -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open142.5
▼ 1
Close141.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
USM +136 · CCU -162
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CCU -2.5 · unchangedmodel CCU -0.5
model CCU -0.5
Opened 142.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 1 downmodel 146
model 146
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| CCU | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USM 2–1 CCUUSM leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · USM 1-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | CCU 63 vs USM 66 | USM -3.5 | CCU W |
| Feb 20, 2024-25 | CCU 87 @ USM 78 | USM -5.5 | CCU W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | USM 79 @ CCU 63 | CCU +3.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
19 games played
Straight up
9-10
47% wins
Against the spread
7-12
37% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-8
58% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs TXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @ TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @ GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
covered 7didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
over 11under 8avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Coastal
20 games played
Straight up
11-9
55% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-10
50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ WMU | L 71-76 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 11 | vs WIN | W 72-66 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 14 | @ JXST | L 67-74 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 21 | @ WIU | W 84-64 | -3.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs UND | W 75-58 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 23 | @ ILST | L 42-94 | +12.5 | L −39.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 30 | vs AAMU | W 67-60 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 3 | @ UPST | L 78-85 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | @WIN | W 88-84 | +16.5 | W +20.5 | 153.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ GCU | L 61-82 | +17.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 18 | @ APP | L 49-67 | +4.5 | L −13.5 | 137.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | @ ODU | W 76-74 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 22 | @ JOES | W 68-62 | +7.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 1 | vs GASO | L 81-82 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | vsGAST | L 71-89 | -6.5 | L −24.5 | 148.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | vsODU | L 66-70 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 10 | vsAPP | W 67-62 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 133.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 14 | @ MRSH | W 85-83 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @GASO | W 79-75 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 157.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 22 | vsTXST | W 72-70 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@WMU
WMUL 71-76
−2.5
11
vsWIN
WINW 72-66
+8.5
14
@JXST
JXSTL 67-74
+0.5
21
@WIU
WIUW 84-64
+16.5
22
vsUND
UNDW 75-58
+13.5
23
@ILST
ILSTL 42-94
−39.5
30
vsAAMU
AAMUW 67-60
−0.5
3
@UPST
UPSTL 78-85
−4.5
6
@WIN
WINW 88-84
+20.5
13
@GCU
GCUL 61-82
−3.5
18
@APP
APPL 49-67
−13.5
20
@ODU
ODUW 76-74
+5.5
22
@JOES
JOESW 68-62
+13.5
1
vsGASO
GASOL 81-82
−2.5
3
vsGAST
GASTL 71-89
−24.5
8
vsODU
ODUL 66-70
−8.5
10
vsAPP
APPW 67-62
+6.5
14
@MRSH
MRSHW 85-83
+11.5
17
@GASO
GASOW 79-75
+10.5
22
vsTXST
TXSTW 72-70
+0.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@WMU
WMUL 71-76
+0.5
11
vsWIN
WINW 72-66
−27.5
14
@JXST
JXSTL 67-74
+1.5
21
@WIU
WIUW 84-64
+9.5
22
vsUND
UNDW 75-58
−14.5
23
@ILST
ILSTL 42-94
−10.5
30
vsAAMU
AAMUW 67-60
−13.5
3
@UPST
UPSTL 78-85
+18.5
6
@WIN
WINW 88-84
+18.5
13
@GCU
GCUL 61-82
−0.5
18
@APP
APPL 49-67
−21.5
20
@ODU
ODUW 76-74
+2.5
22
@JOES
JOESW 68-62
−14.5
1
vsGASO
GASOL 81-82
+5.5
3
vsGAST
GASTL 71-89
+11.5
8
vsODU
ODUL 66-70
−15.5
10
vsAPP
APPW 67-62
−4.5
14
@MRSH
MRSHW 85-83
+16.5
17
@GASO
GASOW 79-75
−3.5
22
vsTXST
TXSTW 72-70
+1.5
over 10under 10avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
9-10 overall · 5-4 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Georgia St62–69
- L@ Texas St67–74
- L@ Troy65–91
- Wvs UL Monroe70–60
- Wvs Texas St80–70
2 days since their last game.
Coastal
11-9 overall · 5-4 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas St72–70
- W@ GA Southern79–75
- W@ Marshall85–83
- Wvs App State67–62
- Lvs Old Dominion66–70
2 days since their last game.