Reed Green Coliseum · at Southern Miss · Conference game
Closing line
USM -2.5✓ USM covered by 7.5
USM -2.5✓ USM covered by 7.5Closing total144.5Over by 5.5
 TXST | This season | USM |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | Record | 7-7 |
| 5-9 | ATS | 6-8 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 8-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TXST 70–76 USM · ✓ USM (68%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 28 | 37 | 5 | 70 |
| USM | 29 | 36 | 15 | 80 |
1st half: TXST 28, USM 29 (USM by 1). The model had USM by 3.1 and a total of 68.4 (actual 57).
Team stats
| TXST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-63 40% | Field goals | 29-60 48% |
| 6-25 24% | 3-pointers | 4-13 31% |
| 14-22 64% | Free throws | 18-24 75% |
| 37 11 off | Rebounds | 39 9 off |
| 7 | Assists | 11 |
| 11 | Steals | 8 |
| 6 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone G | 44 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 6-15 | 2-7 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 37 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-7 |
| DJ Hall F | 31 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Kaden Gumbs G | 28 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 6-8 | 1-1 |
| Tay Knox C | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Robert Fields C | 20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Bolden G | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Franck Emmou G | 18 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Makai Willis C | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Jaelyn Lee G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Deke Thompson, Dimp Pernell, Ky Pernell, Isaiah Barganier, Cameron Simpson
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik Weeks F | 42 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 10-21 | 0-2 |
| Curt Lewis G | 39 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Djahi Binet F | 38 | 12 | 15 | 1 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 34 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Israel Hart G | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2-7 | 0-3 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 19 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| Tegra Izay C | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Felipe Patino G | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma, Chandler Watts, Isaac Taveras, Fallou Diagne, Dalyn Brandon, Jett Montgomery, Blake Lander, EJ Paymon
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSM -2.5
ModelUSM -5.5
Model edgeUSM +3.0
W USM covered
Total
Market144.5
Model146.1
Model edgeOver 1.6
W Over
Projected score
TXST 70.3 · USM 75.8
TXST 70 · USM 80
Win probability
USM 68%
1st half
Spread
USM -3.1
USM -1.0
Total
68.4
57 points
Projected score
TXST 32.6 · USM 35.8
TXST 28 · USM 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSM -5.5
3 → TXST
CloseUSM -2.5
3 pts toward TXST
Total
Open147.5
▼ 3
Close144.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
TXST +130 · USM -155
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USM -5.5 · closed USM -2.5 · moved 3 toward TXSTmodel USM -5.5
model USM -5.5
Opened 147.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 3 downmodel 146
model 146
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% |
| USM | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
TXST 3–4 USMUSM leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TXST 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | USM 82 @ TXST 85 | TXST -9.5 | USM W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | TXST 88 @ USM 92 | USM +3.5 | USM W |
| Mar 7, 2023-24 | TXST 75 vs USM 59 | USM -2.5 | TXST W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | TXST 74 @ USM 78 | USM -3.5 | USM W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | USM 55 @ TXST 60 | TXST -1.5 | TXST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas St
14 games played
Straight up
7-7
50% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vs LR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs SOU | W 86-83 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 17 | vs ARST | L 70-89 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs USA | W 67-65 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @ TROY | L 80-100 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ ULM | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
−0.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
−14.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−1.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
−11.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
−5.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
+26.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
+7.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−4.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
+34.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
+12.5
over 8under 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Southern Miss
14 games played
Straight up
7-7
50% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vsARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
over 8under 6avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas St
7-7 overall · 2-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe84–79
- L@ Troy80–100
- Wvs South Alabama67–65
- Lvs Arkansas St70–89
- Wvs Southern86–83
5 days since their last game.
Southern Miss
7-7 overall · 3-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Louisiana74–67
- W@ UL Monroe87–73
- L@ LSU62–90
- Lvs Arkansas St86–93
- Wvs Louisiana62–54
5 days since their last game.