Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St · Conference game
Closing line
TXST -3.5✓ USA covered by 1.5
TXST -3.5✓ USA covered by 1.5Closing total136.5Under by 4.5
 USA | This season | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| 8-3 | Record | 5-6 |
| 4-7 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 7-4 | O/U | 6-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USA 70–71 TXST · ✓ TXST (51%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 39 | 26 | 65 |
| TXST | 25 | 42 | 67 |
1st half: USA 39, TXST 25 (USA by 14). The model had TXST by 0.1 and a total of 65.9 (actual 64).
Team stats
| USA | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-52 46% | Field goals | 21-60 35% |
| 3-15 20% | 3-pointers | 5-23 22% |
| 14-22 64% | Free throws | 20-22 91% |
| 28 6 off | Rebounds | 44 19 off |
| 3 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 7 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaze Harris G | 40 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 9-20 | 0-1 |
| Adam Olsen F | 39 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 35 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 30 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Randy Brady F | 27 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Stephen Williams F | 19 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Maxwell Land, Peyton Law, Desmond Williams, Brian Hawthorne, Samuel Shoptaw, John Broom
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone G | 33 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 5-12 | 1-5 |
| DJ Hall F | 29 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Gumbs G | 29 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2-9 | 0-2 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 25 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 2-12 | 0-5 |
| Makai Willis C | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Bolden G | 24 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Franck Emmou G | 21 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
| Robert Fields C | 17 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Tay Knox C | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaelyn Lee G | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Deke Thompson, Dimp Pernell, Ky Pernell, Isaiah Barganier, Cameron Simpson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTXST -3.5
ModelTXST -0.3
Model edgeUSA +3.2
W USA covered
Total
Market136.5
Model140.7
Model edgeOver 4.2
L Under
Projected score
USA 70.2 · TXST 70.5
USA 65 · TXST 67
Win probability
TXST 51%
1st half
Spread
TXST -0.1
USA -14.0
Total
65.9
64 points
Projected score
USA 32.9 · TXST 33
USA 39 · TXST 25
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTXST -2.5
1 → TXST
CloseTXST -3.5
1 pt toward TXST
Total
Open137.5
▼ 1
Close136.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
USA +145 · TXST -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TXST -2.5 · closed TXST -3.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel TXST -0.5
model TXST -0.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 1 downmodel 140.5
model 140.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| TXST | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
USA 3–4 TXSTTXST leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · USA 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | USA 92 @ TXST 93 | TXST -1.5 | USA W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | TXST 65 @ USA 70 | USA -6.5 | TXST W |
| Feb 15, 2023-24 | TXST 55 @ USA 72 | USA -2.5 | USA W |
| Feb 1, 2023-24 | USA 66 @ TXST 74 | TXST -2.5 | TXST W |
| Feb 22, 2022-23 | USA 76 @ TXST 67 | TXST +2.5 | USA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Alabama
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
4-7
36% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-4
64% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @ UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 5 | @ ETSU | L 65-91 | +7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | vs UNT | L 57-58 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 17 | @ ULM | W 96-92 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 188 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
−18.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−2.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
−5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 7avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−20.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
+39.5
over 7under 4avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas St
11 games played
Straight up
5-6
45% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vsUTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vs LR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs SOU | W 86-83 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 17 | vs ARST | L 70-89 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
−0.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
−14.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
+26.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
+7.5
over 6under 5avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Alabama
8-3 overall · 1-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe96–92
- Lvs North Texas57–58
- L@ ETSU65–91
- Wvs New Mexico St77–75
- W@ UTSA82–58
3 days since their last game.
Texas St
5-6 overall · 0-1 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Arkansas St70–89
- Wvs Southern86–83
- L@ Rice72–77
- Lvs Lehigh74–78
- Lvs Seattle U52–66
3 days since their last game.