Allen Arena · at Lipscomb · Conference game
Closing line
LIP -3.5✓ CARK covered by 11.5
LIP -3.5✓ CARK covered by 11.5Closing total155.5Over by 8.5
 CARK | This season | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| 11-10 | Record | 13-9 |
| 12-9 | ATS | 11-11 |
| 10-11 | O/U | 13-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CARK 76–79 LIP · ✗ LIP (62%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARK | 45 | 41 | 86 |
| LIP | 33 | 45 | 78 |
1st half: CARK 45, LIP 33 (CARK by 12). The model had LIP by 2.0 and a total of 72.4 (actual 78).
Team stats
| CARK | LIP | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-67 46% | Field goals | 25-55 45% |
| 9-27 33% | 3-pointers | 13-33 39% |
| 15-21 71% | Free throws | 15-22 68% |
| 39 14 off | Rebounds | 35 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 20 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 21 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| CARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Moore G | 35 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 6-13 | 2-6 |
| Camren Hunter G | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 12-20 | 3-7 |
| Ty Robinson G | 32 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 3-11 | 0-3 |
| Malchiah Marable F | 27 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Javion Guy-King G | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cole McCormick G | 28 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 8-12 | 3-5 |
| Truman Byrne F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Harry Beauchamp G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Parker Applegate G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Tyler Lee G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chris Mason, R.J. Newton, J.C. Shulman, Ethan Thomas, Owen Dehrmann, Rylie Marshall, Rashad Bolden
| LIP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Esmeraldo G | 35 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Grant Asman F | 25 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 9-12 | 6-8 |
| Charlie Williams C | 24 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Or Ashkenazi F | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Titas Sargiunas F | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ross Candelino G | 31 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-9 |
| Ethan Duncan G | 16 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Kennedy Okpara F | 15 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Kellan Boylan F | 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Cole Middleton F | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Luke Jack, Devyn Martin, Josh Scott, Luke Carter, Miles White, Logan Suber
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLIP -3.5
ModelLIP -3.6
Model edgeLIP +0.1
L CARK covered
Total
Market155.5
Model154.7
Model edgeUnder 0.8
L Over
Projected score
CARK 75.5 · LIP 79.1
CARK 86 · LIP 78
Win probability
LIP 62%
1st half
Spread
LIP -2.0
CARK -12.0
Total
72.4
78 points
Projected score
CARK 35.2 · LIP 37.2
CARK 45 · LIP 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIP -3.5
no move
CloseLIP -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open154.5
▲ 1
Close155.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
CARK +154 · LIP -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIP -3.5 · unchangedmodel LIP -3.5 matches the line
model LIP -3.5 = line ✓
Opened 154.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 upmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARK | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| LIP | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
CARK 2–6 LIPLIP leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · LIP has won the last 4 meetings · CARK 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2024-25 | CARK 66 @ LIP 84 | LIP -19.5 | CARK W |
| Feb 26, 2024-25 | CARK 60 @ LIP 78 | LIP -20.5 | CARK W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | LIP 68 @ CARK 55 | CARK +13.5 | CARK W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | LIP 85 @ CARK 68 | CARK +7.5 | LIP W |
| Jan 18, 2023-24 | CARK 96 @ LIP 86 | LIP -14.5 | CARK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
C Arkansas
21 games played
Straight up
11-10
52% wins
Against the spread
12-9
57% covers · avg +6.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-11
48% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ UNC | L 54-94 | +31.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARK | L 56-93 | +35.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 16 | vs SAM | L 77-84 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 20 | @ UNT | L 56-74 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 134.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 23 | vs EWU | W 92-65 | +4.5 | W +31.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs EIU | W 81-60 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 29 | @ ETSU | L 57-80 | +12.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs LR | W 85-47 | -3.5 | W +34.5 | 138.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 7 | @ ETAM | L 68-75 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 13 | @ VAN | L 72-83 | +36.5 | W +25.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 21 | @ SMU | L 82-99 | +24.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 1 | vs FGCU | W 85-83 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 3 | vs STET | W 93-73 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 8 | @ BELL | L 78-84 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 10 | @ EKU | L 75-79 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 15 | vs JAX | W 62-60 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 17 | vs UNF | W 98-69 | -12.5 | W +16.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 22 | @ WGA | W 86-65 | -3.5 | W +17.5 | 154.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 28 | @ QUC | W 100-90 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | O 190 |
| Jan 31 | vsEKU | W 90-81 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 4 | vs UNA | W 81-60 | -10.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@UNC
UNCL 54-94
−8.5
11
@ARK
ARKL 56-93
−1.5
16
vsSAM
SAML 77-84
−0.5
20
@UNT
UNTL 56-74
−1.5
23
vsEWU
EWUW 92-65
+31.5
25
vsEIU
EIUW 81-60
+15.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUL 57-80
−10.5
3
vsLR
LRW 85-47
+34.5
7
@ETAM
ETAML 68-75
−4.5
13
@VAN
VANL 72-83
+25.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 82-99
+7.5
1
vsFGCU
FGCUW 85-83
+4.5
3
vsSTET
STETW 93-73
+8.5
8
@BELL
BELLL 78-84
−8.5
10
@EKU
EKUL 75-79
−5.5
15
vsJAX
JAXW 62-60
−5.5
17
vsUNF
UNFW 98-69
+16.5
22
@WGA
WGAW 86-65
+17.5
28
@QUC
QUCW 100-90
+15.5
31
vsEKU
EKUW 90-81
+4.5
4
vsUNA
UNAW 81-60
+10.5
covered 12didn’t cover 9avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UNC
UNCL 54-94
−9.5
11
@ARK
ARKL 56-93
−9.5
16
vsSAM
SAML 77-84
+9.5
20
@UNT
UNTL 56-74
−4.5
23
vsEWU
EWUW 92-65
+2.5
25
vsEIU
EIUW 81-60
+1.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUL 57-80
−7.5
3
vsLR
LRW 85-47
−6.5
7
@ETAM
ETAML 68-75
−2.5
13
@VAN
VANL 72-83
−3.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 82-99
+24.5
1
vsFGCU
FGCUW 85-83
+11.5
3
vsSTET
STETW 93-73
+18.5
8
@BELL
BELLL 78-84
+7.5
10
@EKU
EKUL 75-79
−2.5
15
vsJAX
JAXW 62-60
−14.5
17
vsUNF
UNFW 98-69
+2.5
22
@WGA
WGAW 86-65
−3.5
28
@QUC
QUCW 100-90
+31.5
31
vsEKU
EKUW 90-81
+19.5
4
vsUNA
UNAW 81-60
−6.5
over 10under 11avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Lipscomb
22 games played
Straight up
13-9
59% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @VAN | L 61-105 | +26.5 | L −17.5 | 154.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 9 | @ MER | L 77-92 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | @ UNCA | L 64-69 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 19 | @ BEL | L 68-75 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 22 | vs WCU | W 83-62 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 26 | @ MRSH | W 90-67 | +7.5 | W +30.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 29 | @ SEMO | W 88-77 | +3.5 | W +14.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | vs TNTC | W 83-80 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 7 | vs AAMU | W 92-58 | -11.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 16 | @ DUKE | L 73-97 | +32.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 29 | @ CIN | L 62-89 | +13.5 | L −13.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 1 | vsJAX | W 76-57 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 3 | vsUNF | W 82-74 | -18.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 8 | @STET | L 83-91 | -11.5 | L −19.5 | 150.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 10 | @FGCU | W 84-77 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 15 | vsBELL | W 81-71 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 17 | vs APSU | W 82-78 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 22 | vsSTET | W 79-74 | -15.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 23 | vsFGCU | W 86-71 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 29 | @JAX | L 65-70 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @UNF | W 100-94 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | O 194 |
| Feb 4 | @APSU | L 76-87 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@VAN
VANL 61-105
−17.5
9
@MER
MERL 77-92
−11.5
11
@UNCA
UNCAL 64-69
+1.5
19
@BEL
BELL 68-75
+5.5
22
vsWCU
WCUW 83-62
+15.5
26
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-67
+30.5
29
@SEMO
SEMOW 88-77
+14.5
3
vsTNTC
TNTCW 83-80
−7.5
7
vsAAMU
AAMUW 92-58
+22.5
16
@DUKE
DUKEL 73-97
+8.5
29
@CIN
CINL 62-89
−13.5
1
vsJAX
JAXW 76-57
+6.5
3
vsUNF
UNFW 82-74
−10.5
8
@STET
STETL 83-91
−19.5
10
@FGCU
FGCUW 84-77
+9.5
15
vsBELL
BELLW 81-71
−1.5
17
vsAPSU
APSUW 82-78
+1.5
22
vsSTET
STETW 79-74
−10.5
23
vsFGCU
FGCUW 86-71
+9.5
29
@JAX
JAXL 65-70
−8.5
31
@UNF
UNFW 100-94
−4.5
4
@APSU
APSUL 76-87
−6.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@VAN
VANL 61-105
+11.5
9
@MER
MERL 77-92
+11.5
11
@UNCA
UNCAL 64-69
−25.5
19
@BEL
BELL 68-75
−15.5
22
vsWCU
WCUW 83-62
−6.5
26
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-67
−0.5
29
@SEMO
SEMOW 88-77
+11.5
3
vsTNTC
TNTCW 83-80
+10.5
7
vsAAMU
AAMUW 92-58
+3.5
16
@DUKE
DUKEL 73-97
+18.5
29
@CIN
CINL 62-89
+0.5
1
vsJAX
JAXW 76-57
−14.5
3
vsUNF
UNFW 82-74
−16.5
8
@STET
STETL 83-91
+23.5
10
@FGCU
FGCUW 84-77
+3.5
15
vsBELL
BELLW 81-71
−2.5
17
vsAPSU
APSUW 82-78
+4.5
22
vsSTET
STETW 79-74
−4.5
23
vsFGCU
FGCUW 86-71
+3.5
29
@JAX
JAXL 65-70
−7.5
31
@UNF
UNFW 100-94
+28.5
4
@APSU
APSUL 76-87
+6.5
over 13under 9avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
C Arkansas
11-10 overall · 8-2 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Alabama81–60
- Wvs E Kentucky90–81
- W@ Queens University Royals100–90
- W@ West Georgia86–65
- Wvs North Florida98–69
3 days since their last game.
Lipscomb
13-9 overall · 8-3 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Austin Peay76–87
- W@ North Florida100–94
- L@ Jacksonville65–70
- Wvs FGCU86–71
- Wvs Stetson79–74
3 days since their last game.