Farris Center · at C Arkansas · Conference game
Closing line
FGCU -2.5✓ CARK covered by 4.5
FGCU -2.5✓ CARK covered by 4.5Closing total156.5Over by 11.5
| FGCU | This season | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | Record | 3-8 |
| 3-8 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 8-3 | O/U | 4-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FGCU 79–78 CARK · ✗ FGCU (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | 40 | 43 | 83 |
| CARK | 37 | 48 | 85 |
1st half: FGCU 40, CARK 37 (FGCU by 3). The model had FGCU by 0.7 and a total of 73.3 (actual 77).
Team stats
| FGCU | CARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-54 54% | Field goals | 30-58 52% |
| 14-31 45% | 3-pointers | 9-23 39% |
| 11-12 92% | Free throws | 16-20 80% |
| 26 5 off | Rebounds | 32 11 off |
| 18 | Assists | 19 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| FGCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahmir Barno G | 40 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| J.R. Konieczny F | 34 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 8-16 | 3-10 |
| Isaiah Malone F | 25 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Ellerbee G | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Michael Duax F | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Rory Stewart F | 27 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Darren Williams G | 26 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 5-9 | 5-8 |
| Tristen Guillouette C | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Tanner F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matt McCarthy, Chase Konieczny, Jack Reddick, Evan Barlow, BB Washington, Brandon Dwyer, George Washington III
| CARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Robinson G | 36 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 9-15 | 7-10 |
| Camren Hunter G | 35 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6-15 | 1-4 |
| Luke Moore G | 32 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Javion Guy-King G | 30 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 5-10 | 0-4 |
| Malchiah Marable F | 21 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cole McCormick G | 26 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Truman Byrne F | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Harry Beauchamp G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Tyler Lee G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Chris Mason, R.J. Newton, J.C. Shulman, Parker Applegate, Ethan Thomas, Owen Dehrmann, Rylie Marshall, Rashad Bolden
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFGCU -2.5
ModelFGCU -1.0
Model edgeCARK +1.5
W CARK covered
Total
Market156.5
Model156.5
Model edge—
Over
Projected score
FGCU 78.7 · CARK 77.8
FGCU 83 · CARK 85
Win probability
FGCU 53%
1st half
Spread
FGCU -0.7
FGCU -3.0
Total
73.3
77 points
Projected score
FGCU 37 · CARK 36.3
FGCU 40 · CARK 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFGCU -2.5
no move
CloseFGCU -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open158.5
▼ 2
Close156.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
FGCU -142 · CARK +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FGCU -2.5 · unchangedmodel FGCU -1
model FGCU -1
Opened 158.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 2 downmodel 156.5 matches the line
model 156.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| CARK | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
FGCU 4–1 CARKFGCU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · FGCU has won the last 2 meetings · FGCU 1-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | CARK 71 @ FGCU 77 | FGCU -11.5 | CARK W |
| Feb 1, 2023-24 | FGCU 82 @ CARK 59 | CARK +4 | FGCU W |
| Feb 2, 2022-23 | CARK 91 @ FGCU 87 | FGCU -12.5 | CARK W |
| Jan 2, 2022-23 | FGCU 84 @ CARK 79 | CARK +9.5 | CARK W |
| Feb 3, 2021-22 | FGCU 95 @ CARK 93 | CARK +6 | CARK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
FGCU
11 games played
Straight up
4-7
36% wins
Against the spread
3-8
27% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-3
73% overs · avg +11.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ ILL | L 70-113 | +29.5 | L −13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs GASO | L 94-95 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 163.5 | O 189 |
| Nov 15 | vs UTC | W 91-73 | +1.5 | W +19.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ SAM | W 77-62 | +5.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORU | W 93-88 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Nov 25 | vs RICE | W 78-63 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs KENN | L 100-102 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 202 |
| Dec 3 | @ FIU | L 83-89 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | vs FAU | L 76-81 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 14 | @ UNM | L 59-75 | +15.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 20 | @ UCF | L 80-102 | +17.5 | L −4.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@ILL
ILLL 70-113
−13.5
11
vsGASO
GASOL 94-95
−4.5
15
vsUTC
UTCW 91-73
+19.5
19
@SAM
SAMW 77-62
+20.5
24
vsORU
ORUW 93-88
−6.5
25
vsRICE
RICEW 78-63
+9.5
26
vsKENN
KENNL 100-102
−3.5
3
@FIU
FIUL 83-89
−7.5
7
vsFAU
FAUL 76-81
−2.5
14
@UNM
UNML 59-75
−0.5
20
@UCF
UCFL 80-102
−4.5
covered 3didn’t cover 8avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@ILL
ILLL 70-113
+22.5
11
vsGASO
GASOL 94-95
+25.5
15
vsUTC
UTCW 91-73
+11.5
19
@SAM
SAMW 77-62
−15.5
24
vsORU
ORUW 93-88
+27.5
25
vsRICE
RICEW 78-63
−8.5
26
vsKENN
KENNL 100-102
+41.5
3
@FIU
FIUL 83-89
+17.5
7
vsFAU
FAUL 76-81
+6.5
14
@UNM
UNML 59-75
−25.5
20
@UCF
UCFL 80-102
+20.5
over 8under 3avg +11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
C Arkansas
11 games played
Straight up
3-8
27% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg +8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-7
36% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ UNC | L 54-94 | +31.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARK | L 56-93 | +35.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 16 | vsSAM | L 77-84 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 20 | @ UNT | L 56-74 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 134.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 23 | vs EWU | W 92-65 | +4.5 | W +31.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs EIU | W 81-60 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 29 | @ ETSU | L 57-80 | +12.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs LR | W 85-47 | -3.5 | W +34.5 | 138.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 7 | @ ETAM | L 68-75 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 13 | @ VAN | L 72-83 | +36.5 | W +25.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 21 | @ SMU | L 82-99 | +24.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@UNC
UNCL 54-94
−8.5
11
@ARK
ARKL 56-93
−1.5
16
vsSAM
SAML 77-84
−0.5
20
@UNT
UNTL 56-74
−1.5
23
vsEWU
EWUW 92-65
+31.5
25
vsEIU
EIUW 81-60
+15.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUL 57-80
−10.5
3
vsLR
LRW 85-47
+34.5
7
@ETAM
ETAML 68-75
−4.5
13
@VAN
VANL 72-83
+25.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 82-99
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UNC
UNCL 54-94
−9.5
11
@ARK
ARKL 56-93
−9.5
16
vsSAM
SAML 77-84
+9.5
20
@UNT
UNTL 56-74
−4.5
23
vsEWU
EWUW 92-65
+2.5
25
vsEIU
EIUW 81-60
+1.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUL 57-80
−7.5
3
vsLR
LRW 85-47
−6.5
7
@ETAM
ETAML 68-75
−2.5
13
@VAN
VANL 72-83
−3.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 82-99
+24.5
over 4under 7avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
FGCU
4-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UCF80–102
- L@ New Mexico59–75
- Lvs FAU76–81
- L@ FIU83–89
- Lvs Kennesaw St100–102
A week or more of rest.
C Arkansas
3-8 overall · 0-0 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ SMU82–99
- L@ Vanderbilt72–83
- L@ East Texas A&M68–75
- Wvs Little Rock85–47
- L@ ETSU57–80
A week or more of rest.