When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
18 games · 2025 · Carolina Panthers · pick one to list those games
44% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 28% of games.
All 18 games
2025 · Carolina Panthers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
LAR -10 | 44.5 | 7313765 | Q4 | CAR Q1 | 34–31 |
2025 · Week 18 |
TB -3 | 42.5 | 10202030 | U | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
14–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 362037 | U | SEA Q3 | 27–10 |
2025 · Week 16 |
TB -3 | 44.5 | 10233743 | U | CAR Q2 | 20–23 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 7172737 | U | NO Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 13 |
LAR -10 | 44.5 | 21384559 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 28–31 |
2025 · Week 12 |
SF -7 | 48.5 | 7132629 | U | SF Q3 | 9–20 |
2025 · Week 11 |
ATL -4.5 | 41.5 | 1431405457 | Q4 | CAR Q3 Late over Lead lost |
30–27 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CAR -5.5 | 38.5 | 10171724 | U | NO Q1 | 17–7 |
2025 · Week 9 |
GB -13.5 | 43.5 | 0131929 | U | CAR Q1 | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 3224349 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 40–9 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NYJ -1.5 | 39.5 | 3131619 | U | CAR Q1 | 13–6 |
2025 · Week 6 |
DAL -2.5 | 45.5 | 6304457 | Q4 | CAR Q4 | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 5 |
MIA -1.5 | 44.5 | 3273051 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late over |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 4 |
NE -3 | 42.5 | 13344155 | Q4 | NE Q2 | 13–42 |
2025 · Week 3 |
ATL -4.5 | 43.5 | 7102030 | U | CAR Q1 | 0–30 |
2025 · Week 2 |
ARI -6.5 | 45.5 | 13233649 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
22–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
JAX -4.5 | 44.5 | 6232336 | U | JAX Q2 | 10–26 |
LAR
CAR
TB
SEA
NO
SF
ATL
GB
BUF
NYJ
DAL
MIA
NE
ARI
JAXWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 6
Q2 22% 4
Q3 17% 3
Q4 28% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 53% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 78% and covered 61% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 8 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.