When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · Week 12 · pick one to list those games
77% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · Week 12 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 12 |
BAL -2.5 | 50.5 | 7273353 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late over |
30–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PHI -2.5 | 47.5 | 10204157 | Q4 | PHI Q2 Late over |
37–20 |
2024 · Week 12 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243448 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
10–38 |
2024 · Week 12 |
ARI -1.5 | 46.5 | 0101622 | U | SEA Q1 | 6–16 |
2024 · Week 12 |
DEN -5.5 | 41.5 | 3222948 | Q4 | DEN Q4 | 29–19 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIN -2.5 | 39.5 | 724345457 | Q4 | MIN OT | 30–27 |
2024 · Week 12 |
DET -6.5 | 49.5 | 3202730 | U | DET Q2 | 24–6 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIA -7.5 | 45.5 | 0243149 | Q4 | MIA Q2 | 15–34 |
2024 · Week 12 |
TB -6.5 | 40.5 | 7233037 | U | TB Q1 | 30–7 |
2024 · Week 12 |
WSH -10.5 | 44.5 | 361960 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
34–26 |
2024 · Week 12 |
KC -11.5 | 42.5 | 13294357 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 30–27 |
2024 · Week 12 |
HOU -7.5 | 40.5 | 17374759 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 32–27 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 0131643 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Lead lost |
19–24 |
BAL
LAC
PHI
LAR
SF
GB
ARI
SEA
DEN
LV
MIN
CHI
DET
IND
NE
MIA
TB
NYG
DAL
WSH
KC
CAR
TEN
HOU
PIT
CLEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 7
Q2 23% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 15% 2
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 83% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 85% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.